I lost the value on this pick by not taking it earlier in the week, but I'm still going to back the Cardinals in this spot. While the Dolphins defense has been incredible this year, they struggle against the run, where they rank 32nd in DVOA. Their three losses have come against mobile quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, and I think they'll have trouble with a great rush offense in Arizona even with Kenyan Drake hurt. It's hard to know what to expect from the Miami offense since Tua Tagovailoa didn't have to do anything last week, but the Cardinals have been able to hold limited offenses to point totals in the teens this year. If they can do that here, they should get the cover.

Last week, it was clearly evident that QB Tua Tagovailoa was not ready in his debut for the Dolphins. Creating turnovers and keeping a safe approach for him got Miami the win over the Rams. Expect a similar script against Arizona and QB Kyler Murray, who has been turnover-prone (seven interceptions). Take Miami and the points.

Both the Cardinals and Dolphins rank among the top three Under teams this season, combining to have only 3 of their 14 games go Over the total. Throw in that Miami's QB will be Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for less than 100 yards last week in his first start, as well as both defenses sneakily ranking in the top 11 in DVOA, and this doesn't shape up to be a shootout. Take the Under.

Chase Edmonds has been better than Kenyan Drake, and Edmonds should have a huge game against Miami's weak run defense. While I love what Brian Flores is doing in Miami, this is a bad spot. Lay the points.

Arizona is a chunk-play offense, meaning if the Cardinals aren't getting splash plays, it's tough for them to move the ball on a consistent basis. However, they are able to create those plays very often in ballgames and, defensively, we've seen them become much better. Miami is a bit more methodical and will need a breakout game from Tua Tagovailoa in order to keep the pace, despite what should be a solid defensive effort.

Miami won Tua Tagovailoa's debut against the Rams, 28-17, in a surprising upset. However, what that result overshadowed is that the Dolphins won because their defense forced four Rams turnovers. The Rams ran 92 plays to Miami's 48. Miami's offense averaged only 3.0 yards per play, and Tagovailoa completed only 12 of his 22 passes for 4.2 yards per attempt. The Dolphins defense has been great against the pass (it ranks 3rd in DVOA), it's the worst rush defense in the NFL (32nd in DVOA). So now a Dolphins team that can't stop the run and has a rookie QB making his first career road start will be facing an Arizona offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing DVOA.

QB Tua Tagovailoa sports a seriously misleading 1-0 record. Miami’s offense did next-to-nothing in his debut, and he was rescued by the Dolphins’ defense and special teams. A dozen players, including key RBs, are listed on Miami’s injury report. Arizona steps out of a bye week rejuvenated and with a three-game straight-up streak. As stifling as Miami’s pass defense was against the Rams, its run D is ranked near the bottom. The Cardinals will game-plan accordingly, using QB Kyler Murray’s scrambling ability to great effect.

This line seems at least 2.5 points too low -- I have yet to find a simulation anywhere that has the Cardinals winning by less than a touchdown. They are rested and quite healthy off their bye, while the Fins are likely to be without their top two running backs in Myles Gaskin (for sure out) and Matt Breida. Asking Tua Tagovailoa to do more in the passing game probably isn't wise this early in his career and after how he looked in his Week 8 starting debut. The Cards will cover a fourth straight game for the first time since 2014.

I love Arizona. Last week, Tua Tagovailoa had under 100 yards passing and the Dolphins were outgained by a wide margin. Kyler Murray is much further along than Tua. The Cardinals should chew up this Dolphins' defense. Lay the points.