These are two great teams, despite down spots for both this season, and this line change does concern me. Nevertheless, I think the Ravens have just enough offense to get past this Colts defense -- especially considering Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have been relatively embarrassed as of late. I just don't trust Phillip Rivers in a big spot like this, and considering I'm now getting a point, it's a worthy waiver.

The Colts have played only one team (Bears) all season that ranks in the top half of the league in defensive DVOA, and that resulted in a 19-11 Indy win. This game's total will probably go north of that, but with Darius Leonard back for the Colts and both these defenses ranking in the top five, it will be tough sledding for either offense. Take the Under.

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has underperformed, but let’s not forget he is the defending MVP. He will soon restore the old magic. The Ravens’ favorite status in this matchup vanished when seven defensive players went on the reserve/COVID-19 list. All have been removed. The ground game is the cornerstone of the Ravens offense. As effective as Indy’s defense has been, it ranks last in rushing yards yielded per play. Take Baltimore.

Both teams have a defensive DVOA ranking in the top five with Indianapolis No. 3. The Colts offense ranks 22nd in the NFL in DVOA while playing a very soft defensive schedule. Meanwhile Baltimore's offense is ranked 20th in DVOA and 12th in yards per play. With both teams at 5-2 they could be playing for the upper hand for home field advantage in the playoffs. Take the Under.

If Lamar Jackson doesn't have the turnovers last week, or at least doesn't have the pick-6, the Ravens win and cover versus the Steelers. This is still one of the top four teams in the NFL and they face a Colts team coming off of a very impressive beatdown of the Detroit Lions. The key matchup here will be between Colts QB Philip Rivers and the Ravens defensive pressure. I'm taking the Ravens in that regard.

This is going to be a fun battle to watch the No. 1 rushing team (Ravens 179 ypg) against the No. 2 rush defense (Colts allowing 100 ypg). It should be extremely interesting with the Ravens coming off the loss, which is part of the reason I’m laying the short price on the road. The Colts' last loss came against one of the top rushing teams (Browns). Their first loss came at Jacksonville. The Ravens defense will give Philip Rivers a tough time as well. Ravens get the cover.

Baltimore's success on offense has been due to their elite run game, as Lamar Jackson hasn't been as effective passing the ball as last year. But the problem for Baltimore is that the Colts bring a great defense into this matchup, one that not only defends the pass well but also ranks second in yards per rush allowed and fifth in DVOA. I do worry about the Colts offense being able to have consistent success against an equally great Ravens defense, but with several players on the unit having to miss time this week due to COVID-19 protocols, there's at least a chance they are less locked in on Sunday. I liked the Colts at this number anyway, so consider that the cherry on top.

The Ravens offense hinges on its elite run game, as Baltimore's pass offense hasn't been good this year. But they're up against a Colts defense that's second in yards per rush allowed and fifth in DVOA against the run. With Darius Leonard back for the Colts, that defense is hard to score points against, so I don't see a big day for the Baltimore offense. But the Ravens defense is also one of the league's best units, while the Colts run the ball way too much for a team that's not good at it. With both defenses better than both offenses, it feels like we're getting a nice number to play Under here.

Against the better teams, Lamar Jackson doesn't produce. Indy has a top-5 defense in almost every category. Philip Rivers has had two good games in a row, and the Colts have a decent running game. Rivers should have success against Baltimore's depleted secondary. Take the points.