It's going to be windy, rainy and cold in Buffalo for this game, and with Josh Allen already struggling in the passing game after a hot start plus the Patriots hurting at receiver, this is the perfect formula to play a low-scoring game with a lot of running and both teams finishing in the teens in points. Buffalo's defense has struggled this year but with no threat of a passing game from New England, they can load up to stop the run and feel good about their chances of winning.

With 23 mph winds expected, Patriots QB Cam Newton is going to have a tough time completing passes, but so will the Bills. The problem with Newton is he has struggled with accuracy. I expect the Pats defense to put up some resistance, but it’s the wind combo with Newton’s struggles that have me on the Under.

Both teams have gone south offensively, but New England is closer to rock-bottom. QB Cam Newton finds himself in a fog, and now he won’t have the ol’ reliable, receiver Julian Edelman (knee). If N’Keal Harry (concussion) joins him in absentia, the receiver crew will be an assortment of no-names that would include a practice squad promotion. The Bills have been stuck in the teens over the past three games, with the only straight-up win against the lowly Jets. This shapes up as a get-well game as Buffalo relishes the departure of Tom Brady, who engineered seven consecutive straight-up Bills defeats in the series.

How are the Patriots going to score here? Granted, the Bills can't stop the run, but New England will be without Julian Edelman for sure and likely N'Keal Harry, who are the team's two top wideouts. And have you seen Cam Newton lately? The Pats are looking at dropping four straight games SU & ATS for the first time since 2002. Buffalo has not been sharp in the past three (0-3 ATS), but Josh Allen has never lost four consecutive starts ATS. The Bills finally have the upper hand on the Patriots and won't waste this opportunity to smash their former tormentors in the mouth.