The New England Patriots are three-point favorites because of their name and head coach. The Patriots are five points below average at this point of the season. The Patriots defense is allowing 6.1 yards per play, ranking No. 19 in the NFL. Their offense also ranks No. 19 in the NFL, gaining just 5.9 yards per play. San Francisco's offense is No. 16 in yards per play and its defense is No. 6. Jimmy Garoppolo has a big chip on his shoulder and will have a better game than Cam Newton.

In Bill Belichick we trust. The Patriots coach has followed straight-up losses with ATS wins in 52 of 79 outings. The current team is one of his weakest as its transitions from QB Tom Brady, but successor Cam Newton gets a break with both San Fran safeties -- Jimmie Ward (quad), Jaquiski Tartt (groin) -- out. The 49ers sent top rusher Raheem Mostert (ankle) to injured reserve, and a third-stringer is in line to start for an offense already stuck in second gear.

I don't understand this spread being under Patriots -3. The Niners are incredibly banged up with top RB Raheem Mostert and starting center Ben Garland the latest to go down. The defense already has been gutted and now two more guys, linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt, are in question. Then you add in the cross-country travel and the Pats coming off back-to-back defeats. New England is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 off back-to-back ATS losses and is 4-0 ATS in its past four overall hosting a West Coast team. Granted, those numbers were with Tom Brady, but I will be shocked if New England doesn't win by at least a TD.

The Patriots should be much sharper this week, while this is a classic sandwich spot for the 49ers -- traveling cross-country between important divisional games. With Ben Garland and Raheem Mostert out for San Fran, I'll back New England to get back to .500 and cover this small number.

I like how 49ers CB Jason Verrett has played so far, giving them a standout playmaker in the secondary. They are starting to get more and more comfortable with each other, despite all of the losses due to injury. However, this will be Cam Newton's second game back since missing time because of a positive Covid test. I expect their offense to be much more in sync than we saw last week.