Looks like I'm going out on a limb here by backing the Saints, but it's not without reason. Yes, New Orleans is down two key playmakers entering the game, but they still have the best one on the field in Alvin Kamara. The question is whether Sean Payton well get his head out of ... well, let's just say the question is whether Payton will get over his ridiculous Taysom Hill obsession and ensure the best player in the game gets 22-25 touches. Given that the Saints are coming into this game off a bye week, the spread has fallen below a key number and the Panthers are 0-3 ATS against the best defenses they've faced this season, I'm going with the known quantity in a game New Orleans needs to win with the schedule only getting tougher.

For every three games the Saints are favored at home with QB Drew Brees, they cover one. Now Brees must cope without his two primary WRs, Michael Thomas (hamstring) and Emmanuel Sanders (virus). Since its opener, Carolina has held one foe to 21 points and the other three in the teens. A moderate-score game favors an underdog getting spotted a TD (or more). Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater thrives on the road, as indicated by his 14-2 ATS record, and he is an equally impressive 18-4 ATS as an underdog.

This is too many points. Carolina is well-coached and has a passing offense that can keep pace if this turns into a shootout. Back Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers as road dogs.

The Saints could certainly come off the bye looking like the Super Bowl contender we thought they were before the season, but until they prove they can play at that level, I don't get making them this big of favorites here. Their best win was by 11 and they needed a pick-six to get there. The Saints defense hasn't played well, and now they face an opponent in Teddy Bridgewater who is basically an autoplay following a loss (81% cover rate), as an underdog (82%) and on the road (84%) in his career. He can get the Panthers through the backdoor if needed, though with Michael Thomas' status up in the air, the Panthers may not be outside the number at any point on Sunday.

The Saints haven't been a good investment at home lately, and their defense has been suspect all season. Teddy Bridgewater is playing well and the Panthers should keep this close. New Orleans should not be laying over a touchdown here.

I'm projecting 60 points for this NFC South matchup, giving us a strong play on the Over. Look for the Saints to be sharper following their bye, with Michael Thomas providing a big boost, and for Carolina to keep surprising offensively. Go Over.

The Saints have averaged a 30-30 score this season, helping four of their six games get over the total. The last seven meetings with the Panthers at New Orleans have gone over the total and the last seven Saints' games off a bye have gone over. The Panthers have stayed under in their last four games, but I have faith in Teddy Bridgewater to put up points on this Saints defense. Over is the play.

Hopefully the bye week was just what the Saints' defense needed. Carolina comes into the Superdome with one of the most diverse and multiple attacks in the NFL. Where the Panthers are very similar to New Orleans is on the defensive side of the ball. Neither team can afford to make mistakes because the other has the offense to capitalize. I see a constant, back-and-forth affair that'll come down to the wire.