The Titans might be undefeated, but on a per-play basis they're way below average -- a negative 0.9 yards per play. They've beaten teams with a combined 3-11 record, while the Bills just knocked off the Raiders and Rams, who are a combined 7-3. Lay it as Buffalo puts up 30-plus points.

The Titans are 3-0, but they played three teams that are a combined 3-11 and all three wins required a game-winning field goal with less than two minutes left. Their defense has been pretty terrible but has been able to cover for it by creating turnovers. They're going to need them in this matchup, but Josh Allen has thrown just one pick all season. The Bills offense should be able to dominate a Tennessee defense that ranks 31st in third-down and red-zone success rates. And with several Titans still on COVID-19 reserve, including two of their top three receivers, I don't think the Titans can keep up.

I don't have a great feel on the spread for this one because the Titans haven't played in two-plus weeks and have a handful of guys on the COVID-19 list, including two of their top receivers in Corey Davis and Adam Humphries. Another starting WR, AJ Brown, probably will play for the first time since Week 1 but not be 100 percent. Thus, I'm not sure the Titans will score much as the Bills will stack the box to stop Derrick Henry. Buffalo has been pretty good vs. the run. When these clubs met Week 5 last year in Nashville there were only 21 points scored. It won't be that low scoring Tuesday but will stay Under 52.

My model says the Titans cover the spread in almost 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting nice value with them. Tennessee is well-rested, as it hasn't played in over two weeks due to positive COVID-19 tests. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill threw for a season-high 321 yards last time out, and he'll be facing the 29th-ranked pass defense in this one. Expect Tennessee to keep it close and potentially hand Buffalo its first loss of the year.

Even in normal circumstances, Buffalo would be the pick. Given the ongoing disruption in the Titans’ camp caused by Covid-19, with 13 players believed to have tested positive in the past three weeks, the Bills are a no-brainer. QB Josh Allen, aided and abetted by an improved line and receivers, is in the early league MVP mix. Tennessee’s WR and DB corps might be thinned out if coronavirus patients have not recovered. The Bills could load the box against RB Derrick Henry. While both teams are perfect straight-up, Buffalo stands 3-1 ATS whereas the Titans have failed to cover.