I don't want to be found guilty of overthinking things. Last week the Chiefs were 3.5-point dogs to Baltimore and it was common sense to take Patrick Mahomes getting points. Well, this week a Bill Belichick team is getting 10.5 points. Brian Hoyer, yeah, but Bill Belichick is getting 10.5 points.

Under the master Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 9-1 ATS as underdogs by at least eight points. Granted, this challenge might be unprecedented, with QB Cam Newton out and practice disrupted by a COVID-19 scare. Oh, the opponent is the league’s supreme team. But New England's defense is formidable, and Newton’s replacement (34-year-old Brian Hoyer) is a veteran of 69 NFL games. This might scream mismatch to many, but in Belichick we trust.

Some of the deceptions of Cam Newton leading the No. 2 rushing team will be gone without him. But I still believe New England's schemes can work and it can muddy the game with slow play and help keep it Under the total. This isn’t going to be a breakthrough for either Pats backup, but they’ll do enough to not get blown out. Just the Under in this insane Over world.

No Cam Newton? No chance. With Newton out due to COVID-19 and my pick already leaning toward the Chiefs at home in this game, it suddenly became a no-brainer. Get the line while you still can. No matter who Bill Belichick uses in Newton's stead, the Patriots will struggle scoring against an underrated Kansas City defense. The Patriots will also find issue controlling the clock, and the game plan likely called for a heavy ground attack led by Newton to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. This will be an easy double-digit win by KC at home.

The gameplan to stop the Chiefs is always a simple one: Don't allow them to possess the ball. But what gets lost on game day is how good their defense has gotten over the latter part of last season, into this year. The Patriots will stylistically try to attack the Chiefs defense in a similar way the Ravens tried to. I just don't know if the Patriots defensively can matchup up with the speed of Kansas City.

The whole world is going to be on the Chiefs now, but I think they're in for a bit of a letdown after that near-perfect game they played on Monday night. The number is a little high. New England has a very good secondary. This will be a close game, so take the points.