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nfl - Fri 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC | Arrowhead Stadium |

Houston @ Kansas City

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
KC -9.5
-10
Over / Under
54
55
ML
KC -440
-475

Matchup breakdown

Houston
Kansas City
PROJ SCORE
3-7
W-L
9-1
3-7
ATS W-L
6-4
4-5
O/U
4-5
-4.5
PT DIFF
10.7
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Thu 9/10

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

Kansas City -9

WIN

This line could inch up again as we near kickoff. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to have a monster debut against a Texans' linebacking corps that can't cover running backs. Deshaun Watson doesn't have DeAndre Hopkins anymore, and Brandin Cooks will be limited even if he plays. Lay the points with the Super Bowl champs.

+30 5-4 IN LAST 9 NFL PICKS
+885 11-2 IN LAST 13 KC ATS PICKS
+640 24-16-2 IN LAST 42 HOU ATS PICKS

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Fri 9/4

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

UNDER 54

PUSH

With the memory of the 82-point shootout in last year’s playoff matchup still fresh, the public has settled on a massive total. Consider that the Texans jumped ahead 21-0, which threw the game out of whack. Count on a more conventional game, perhaps with Houston chewing clock behind new RB David Johnson while adjusting to the absence of WR De'Andre Hopkins. Offensively, defending Super Bowl champs tend to break slowly from the gate.

+470 8-3-2 IN LAST 13 HOU O/U PICKS

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Sun 9/6

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

Kansas City -9.5

WIN

If a Super Bowl hangover exists, recent numbers suggest it kicks in later in the season, not during opening week. Since 2000, the defending champions have gone 13-6-1 ATS in their first game after popping champagne. Spreads pushing double figures usually call for a pick on the barking underdog, but Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes throws traditional thinking out the window. Counting the postseason, Kansas City won its final six contests by 10 or more points. Houston QB Deshaun Watson, who just received a Mahomes-like contract, has been lethal against KC but must adjust to life without departed WR DeAndre Hopkins. Good luck with that.

+820 16-7 IN LAST 23 KC ATS PICKS
+343 10-6-2 IN LAST 18 HOU ATS PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Thu 9/10

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

Houston +9

LOSS

The focus is on what the Chiefs did to the Texans in the playoffs last year, but going up 24-0 on the Chiefs in the first place has to be worth something, and beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead during the regular season should be worth even more. Underdogs of eight-plus are 7-0 ATS in Week 1 over the last five years and 20-8 ATS in Week 1 over the last 15 years. This Texans team still has plenty of talent after trading away DeAndre Hopkins, and Deshaun Watson is capable of keeping his team in any game or covering late if needed. Loved this pick at +10, still love it at +9.

+725 33-23-3 IN LAST 59 NFL ATS PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 KC ATS PICKS
+170 5-3-1 IN LAST 9 HOU ATS PICKS

Mike McClure

Money
Fri 5/8

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

Kansas City -10

WIN

I like the Chiefs at -10 or fewer in the season opener at Arrowhead Stadium. Removing Deshaun Watson can be a tough assignment, but removing DeAndre Hopkins from the equation certainly helps the Chiefs defensively in this matchup. The Super Bowl Champs got even stronger on offensive by adding Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the mix. My simulations make the Chiefs -12.5 at home. Lay it.

+80 2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS
+594 7-1 IN LAST 8 HOU ATS PICKS
+280 5-2 IN LAST 7 KC ATS PICKS

Emory Hunt

The Czar of the Playbook
Thu 9/10

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

Houston +9

LOSS

These teams split the two matchups last season, with the Chiefs winning the second one in thrilling fashion during the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Houston won the first matchup and had a 24-0 lead in the playoff game. The point is that both teams know each other well, and if you are the Texans, you know that you can move the ball on the Chiefs defense. Without a preseason game and with this being the first live action for both teams, expect a game that will be closer than the nine points Kansas City is giving.

+90 4-3 IN LAST 7 NFL ATS PICKS
+698 21-13 IN LAST 34 KC ATS PICKS
+259 7-4 IN LAST 11 HOU ATS PICKS

Micah Roberts

Former Vegas Bookmaker
Wed 9/9

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

Houston +9

LOSS

The Chiefs finished last season on a nine-game win streak (8-0-1 ATS), one of which was a 51-31 defeat of the Texans (+10) in the playoffs after overcoming a 24-0 deficit.. At the time, the Chiefs were rolling and hungry and the stands were full. On Thursday night, they come in with no preseason games after winning the Super Bowl and only 22 percent of the stadium capacity allowed. The Texans beat the Chiefs, 31-24, at Arrowhead in October and they were getting only +4.5. DeShaun Watson leads the way to cover, maybe even a win.

+647 13-6-1 IN LAST 20 HOU ATS PICKS
+173 15-12 IN LAST 27 KC ATS PICKS

Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
Thu 9/10

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

Kansas City -9

WIN

What a great NFL kickoff game. Not only do you have the defending Super Bowl champions riding high, but you also have a healthy Texans team that may be without DeAndre Hopkins this season but nevertheless has plenty of weapons. I have the Chiefs as an 8-point favorite entering the game, which is why I've been debating making a pick all morning. Homefield advantage will be less prominent with the stadium only one-fifth full, but with defending champions covering openers ATS at a 2-1 ratio this century, I'm willing to give the extra point. Look for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be the difference maker and Patrick Mahomes to pile up some stats on opening night. Fourth-quarter TD seals the cover.

+892 19-9-2 IN LAST 30 KC ATS PICKS
+560 9-3-1 IN LAST 13 HOU ATS PICKS

Brett Anderson

The Dog Whisperer
Tue 9/8

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

UNDER 54.5

WIN

Maybe Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and the world champs don’t need preseason games as much as the rest of the league, but it’s hard to envision any team hitting the gas and going from 0 to 80 in Week 1. No preseason and little offseason is bound to keep scoring down. And as great as the Chiefs’ offense has been, K.C. still went Under the total 9 of 19 games last season. The Texans went Under 10 times. This won’t be a sequel to these teams’ playoff shootout. Take the Under.

+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 KC O/U PICKS

Hank Goldberg

Hammer
Wed 9/9

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

OVER 54.5

LOSS

Even though Houston traded away DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans still have Deshaun Watson throwing to Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. Watson typically plays well against the Chiefs, who have some issues in their secondary. I think Houston will hold up its end of the bargain, and with K.C.'s explosive offense, this game will go Over.

+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 KC O/U PICKS

Matt Severance

Severance Pays
Thu 9/10

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

UNDER 54

PUSH

Yes, the Chiefs scored 51 points themselves the last time they played the Texans, but most NFL wonks agree that the defenses should be ahead of the offenses early this season with no offseason activities or preseason games. Both clubs also are working in new skill position players: Brandin Cooks (if he plays), Randall Cobb and David Johnson for Houston, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire for KC. The Under is 4-1 in the Texans' past five road games and 4-1 in the Chiefs' past five prime-time games.

+390 12-7-1 IN LAST 20 NFL PICKS

Bill Marzano

Veteran Handicapper
Tue 9/8

Houston @ Kansas City | 09/11 | 12:20 AM UTC

Kansas City -9

WIN

Kansas City has a great chance to repeat as Super Bowl champs with Patrick Mahomes at QB. The Chiefs return nearly their entire roster and added a great RB in the draft. With no preseason games, you have to be looking at players and coaching staffs that have experience working together, and injuries. The Chiefs came back last year to destroy the Texans and now Houston is without DeAndre Hopkins. It could be another long night for the Texans and their defense. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Thursday night games. Kansas City is 7-0-1 in its last eight games as home favorite. The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 September games.

+70 4-3 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS
+275 5-2 IN LAST 7 HOU ATS PICKS

Houston

player
QBDeshaunWatson
20.3fan duel
21.41draft kings
22.2cbs sports
player
RBDavidJohnson
12.02fan duel
13.97draft kings
10.82cbs sports
player
RBDukeJohnson
7.77fan duel
9.11draft kings
6.82cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
D. WatsonDeshaun Watson21/322371.501.100.1722.2
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
D. JohnsonDavid Johnson12.5550.254.40.1510.8
D. JohnsonDuke Johnson6.7390.135.80.096.8
D. WatsonDeshaun Watson5.9370.366.20.1722.2
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
W. FullerWill Fuller4.7650.3313.80.058.5
B. CooksBrandin Cooks3.4490.2014.50.046.7
R. CobbRandall Cobb3.2400.1712.40.065.0
K. StillsKenny Stills2.0300.2314.90.024.4
D. JohnsonDavid Johnson2.4250.2610.40.1510.8
D. CarterDeAndre Carter1.7200.0911.50.142.3
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
H. DSTHOU DST1.190.600.831.31.52.0

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Duke Johnson, Keke Coutee, Gareon Conley, Dylan Cole, Cornell Armstrong, Eddie Vanderdoes, Isaiah Coulter, Jonathan Greenard, Cullen Gillaspia
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

Kansas City

player
QBPatrickMahomes
24.78fan duel
26.91draft kings
28.58cbs sports
player
RBClydeEdwards-Helaire
13.13fan duel
15.16draft kings
11.73cbs sports
player
RBDarrelWilliams
8.15fan duel
8.84draft kings
7.69cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
P. MahomesPatrick Mahomes24/363062.200.600.1428.6
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
C. Edwards-HelaireClyde Edwards-Helaire8.5420.485.00.1711.7
D. WilliamsDarrel Williams8.7310.533.60.207.7
P. MahomesPatrick Mahomes4.0260.246.60.1428.6
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
T. HillTyreek Hill5.6860.5615.30.0813.1
T. KelceTravis Kelce6.6810.4912.30.0711.2
S. WatkinsSammy Watkins4.3600.2913.90.078.0
M. HardmanMecole Hardman2.3440.4619.00.137.1
C. Edwards-HelaireClyde Edwards-Helaire2.8340.2412.00.1711.7
D. RobinsonDemarcus Robinson1.9250.2213.40.023.9
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
K. DSTKC DST3.471.160.591.92.23.1

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Damien Williams, Ricky Seals-Jones, Bashaud Breeland, Taco Charlton, Mike Pennel, Breeland Speaks, Alex Brown, Thakarius Keyes
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 09/10/2020 23:47 GMT