The Packers got destroyed by the Niners in Week 12, and despite identical records San Francisco has clearly been the better team this season. But eight points is too many in a game featuring two good teams fighting for a Super Bowl berth. The Niners are just 3-4-1 ATS at home this season, and I expect the Packers to play much better than in their last meeting and at least keep it close. Grab the points.

San Francisco spanked Green Bay during the regular season and looked fantastic against the Vikings last week, and all of that has led to this line climbing too high. Aaron Rodgers isn't Aaron Freaking Rodgers anymore, but he's still Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers passing attack has improved as the season has gone on and Davante Adams has gotten healthier. I fully expect the 49ers to win this game, but I have a hard time passing up this many points in a conference championship game.

The 49ers blew the doors off the Vikings and Kirk Cousins last week in a game that is clearly still resonating with fans and bettors. Perhaps to the point that some are forgetting the Niners are facing the Packers and Aaron Rodgers this week. I do ultimately think San Francisco wins this game, but this is a team that is 1-6-1 ATS with spreads of -6 or greater this season. Green Bay is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS as an underdog, and it’s getting a full eight points. The Packers were embarrassed by the 49ers six weeks ago. That’s not going to happen again, even if they lose.

Rematch games are very tricky, especially when you consider how poorly the Packers played in the first meeting between the two. I would expect the Packers to rely more on their ground game in this one. If that's the case, then they'll have an excellent chance to keep this one close, but I struggle to see that happening. Take the 49ers.

When the 49ers whipped Green Bay earlier this season, the Packers were coming off a bye while San Francisco was missing key defenders. Those defenders are back, with the 49ers getting reinforcements last week at every level of their defense. They also had an extra day to prepare for this rematch. This will be closer than 37-8, but it's another double-digit win for the 49ers.

By his standards, Aaron Rodgers’ endured a pedestrian season. He was dragged down by perhaps his weakest receiving group ever and an inconsistent ground attack. No performance was worse than against San Francisco, whose defense weathered a breakout of injuries to rule the league. It is healthy again, so Packer points will be scarce. The 49ers could seize an early lead and, revisiting their approach from last weekend, bleed the clock with the run game as QB Jimmy Garoppolo launched only 19 passes. Only some late Rodgers magic would threaten the Under.

The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against winning teams, but the lone loss over that span came Nov. 24 at San Francisco in the 49ers' 37-8 win. That's Green Bay's last loss, and San Francisco comes into this game just as strong -- and maybe stronger. The 49ers should be able to control the line on both sides of the ball and get the cover.

The Packers have been to the West Coast twice this season and got blown out both times. They weren't great last week, they escaped. The 49ers shut down Dalvin Cook and they'll contain Aaron Jones. I like San Francisco to cover this one and, as things stand now, win the Super Bowl.

The 49ers showed in their win over the Vikings that the defense is back in top form, and that's bad news for a Packers offense that couldn't muster 200 yards in the regular-season meeting between the two teams. Points should be hard to come by for Aaron Rodgers and Co., but I do think the 49ers can score enough to cover this number. Green Bay's weakness on defense is defending the run, and Kyle Shanahan's team ran more than it threw during the regular season before dominating the Vikings last week. I don't think we're getting 37-8 again, but I can see something like 27-13.