The Chiefs still have an outside shot at a first-round bye, so they will approach this game as if it's important. That's good news for us, because as I've mentioned here before, the Under has been a profitable play in Chiefs home games under Andy Reid. It's 36-16-1 overall, and with this being a divisional matchup with forecasts calling for windy conditions, I like it even more.

The defensive turnaround by the Chiefs has been the biggest story in the second half of the season. Because of that, it makes them a serious contender to get to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they haven't been able to avoid inconsistency on offense. They can be a thorn in the Chiefs' side in this one, but if you remember, Kansas City began to get it right defensively against this Chargers team in Mexico City earlier this season.

The Chiefs have won and covered five straight thanks to a resurgent defense, and the last four covers all came by double digits. This game means a lot to K.C., while the lifeless Chargers are just waiting to start vacation. L.A. has not covered a division game this year. Lay it.

This line is only going to go up, so I think it's wise to hop on it early. The Chiefs offense looks like it could be rounding into form despite the relatively low point totals it has been putting up (remember the last three matchups were tough on that side of the ball). The Chiefs defense looks stellar, allowing 31 points in its last four games combined. The Chargers continue to stumble through a lost season despite a relatively easy schedule, and while they've only lost by more than seven points once this season, this is going to be their toughest road matchup of the year. Chiefs roll.

The Chargers are really awful. They rushed for 19 yards last week. Kansas City is giving up an average of 9.6 points over its last five games. And Patrick Mahomes is playing great. Lay the points.