Thought the line would dip to 2.5 before kickoff (and if you can get it, please do), but I'm still comfortable taking the Texans at -3 despite both they and the Bucs being two of the most bipolar teams this season. Houston is far more talented offensively with all of Tampa Bay's injuries, and it has come time for the Texans to lock down for their playoff push. They're on a 5-2 ATS road stretch and have beaten the Titans and Patriots over the last three weeks. Plus, given the choice, I'll ride with Deshaun Watson over Jameis Winston any day over the week and twice on Sunday (in this case, Saturday).

Sure, Jameis Winston is down his top two receivers, but he showed last week that he can throw to anyone, with Breshad Perriman catching three touchdowns. Yes, that came against a bad Lions defense, but why should we be scared of this Texans unit? They've given up 390-plus yards in four of their five games since the bye, and that includes home games against offenses in the Patriots and Broncos that haven't exactly looked great otherwise. With the underdog 11-3 ATS in Texans games and unlikely to stop Winston, I'll take the Bucs and their improving defense to pull off the shocker and get this win, though I'm happy to take the three points.

There’s a chance of rain Saturday in Tampa, with winds blowing at 13 mph. This is part of the reason this total was bet down from 53. The Buccaneers have gone Over the total in 11 of their last 12 games and have won their last four due to the high-level play of Jameis Winston. He is auditioning for a new contract. The Bucs' defense allows 31 ppg at home. Over is the top play.

Jameis Winston is in the midst of one of my favorite QB seasons of all time, but in the last two weeks he's lost Mike Evans and now Chris Godwin. I think Godwin's the bigger loss for what Tampa wants to do on offense, and it will have an impact on the Bucs here. It's scary to take the Texans as a favorite (only 8-15-1 ATS since 2017), but Tampa's been horrible at home itself, going 0-4-1 ATS there this season. With both Will Fuller and Kenny Stills back, the Houston offense is at max capacity, which will help it get this cover.

Tampa Bay is missing its top two receivers and another key wideout, and that means more interceptions from Jameis Winston. Deshaun Watson has his top targets available with Will Fuller back. I like Houston a lot here.

Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston got along just fine, thank you, without WR Mike Evans on Sunday. Now scratch another terrific target, Chris Godwin (hamstring). With 153 receptions and 17 touchdowns between Evans and Godwin this season, their absence will be too much for the white-hot Winston to overcome. The Bucs have yet to cover at home this season, whereas the Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven roadies. Houston is the lone team here in the playoff hunt. Take the Texans.