Only four teams have had their games go Under the total more often than the Bengals, and one of them is the Patriots. Neither team has scored more than 22 points in a game since Week 8, and it's hard to envision the Bengals, whose top offensive output all season is 23, scoring much at all against the No. 1 defense by DVOA. Take the Under.

The Patriots have had offensive issues in their last five games, losing the last two while going 0-3 ATS in their last three. But they should get better against Cincinnati, which allows 27 points and 183 rushing yards per game. The Bengals have covered in only two of their last 12 home games. New England QB Tom Brady has lost three straight contests just once in his career (2002). I’m on the Patriots.

I'll do it. I'll be the mark who goes against the Patriots coming off back-to-back losses. But I just don't think the offense is playing well enough to be favored by double digits on the road against anyone. The Bengals have been playing competitive football over the last month and they actually outplayed the Browns in the box score but were doomed by an early-pick six and settling for too many FGs. The Bengals' No. 2 red zone defense is up against the Pats' No. 27 red zone offense, so I'm not sure the Pats will be throwing a bunch of TDs on the scoreboard. And the Pats don't have the run game to attack Cincy's biggest weakness. This one stays closer than you think.

It’s a rock-bottom total for a team led by Tom Brady, but it’s deserving. New England’s offense has played as if it's in quicksand lately, averaging 18.6 points over the last five games, while Cincinnati’s has been listless all season without WR A.J. Green. The Patriots have been Under in six of their last eight on the road and 18 of 25 overall. The Bengals are on a 12-4 Under run. If snow or rain appears a day earlier than the forecast suggests, the offenses would face another impediment.