Dominating the Jags on the road does not suddenly fill me with belief in the Chargers. Not when they are going up against a ferocious Vikings pass rush. Minnesota may not be great on the road, but LA is no good at home either, so there's hardly an advantage. Adam Thielen is back, which should open up the passing game and, in turn, Dalvin Cook on the ground. Give me the better team with a spread that has fallen significantly.

Rule of thumb on the Chargers: Go with them on the road and against them at home. Their home-field advantage is minimized by crowds that often are evenly split, as indicated by a 7-18 ATS trend, and Minnesota might have more fans at this one. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has been sneaky good, and big-threat WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) is expected back after a four-game absence. Quite a small spread for teams with vasty different records.

The Vikings seem like they're rolling, but they've covered just two of their last six. They also struggle on the road, going 3-4 ATS and SU on the year. The Chargers have been dominating opponents statistically for weeks but often find different ways to lose. But this is a healthier Chargers team that is about to hit its stride, and with Derwin James back, I believe they'll be able to slow down Kirk Cousins. The Vikings defense hasn't been as dominant as in recent years either, and Philip Rivers can have some success against them. With the Vikings in a clear lookahead spot with Green Bay on deck, this game has prime upset potential.

The Chargers got back on the winning track last week against the Jaguars, but they face a much tougher challenge this week. Minnesota looks like one of the most balanced teams in the NFC, and the Vikings will get back one of their star receivers in Adam Thielen.

The Chargers are 1-5 against the spread at home, and Philip Rivers has turned the ball over 17 times this season. Kirk Cousins has thrown 23 TDs against four INTs. Danielle Hunter and the Minnesota defense will be tough for the Chargers to handle. Back the Vikings.