The Ravens may be the NFL's best team, but they haven’t fared nearly as well against the spread at home (2-4) as on the road (5-1-1). Baltimore also might be a bit careful here with Lamar Jackson, who had been limited at practice with an injured quad. The Jets will likely be without their best defensive player in Jamal Adams, but 17 is a huge window to work with. Grab the points.

There's enough value now at this key number to back the underdog. The Ravens can clinch the division with a win and improve their chance of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. So they will be motivated to take the game seriously, but might also be cautious with ailing QB Lamar Jackson 9quad0. He could rest early if the game is in hand and an NFL number this big always has backdoor vulnerability.

With a total of 45 on this game, we're getting too much value not to take the Jets. I know they're beat up and probably have had the worst injury luck of any team this year, but underdogs of 15 or more in games that have totals of 45 or less are 53-42-1 ATS all time. The Jets also sport a quality run defense, which could at least slow down Lamar Jackson and Co. a little bit on the ground. With Jackson dealing with a quad injury and his left tackle out, I don't see the Ravens running up the score. The Ravens should win, but I'd be surprised if the Jets didn't cover.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson suffered a quad injury last week and has been limited in practice on a short week. I’m willing to take all these points just on the notion that Jackson will not be 100 percent and maybe not do some of the things that make the Ravens the top running and highest-scoring team. The Jets only allow 75 ypg rushing and have won four of their last five. I’m on the Jets.

The Jets won a close game last week against Miami. What has been overlooked is that the Dolphins kicked seven field goals, so they got into scoring position seven times. That's a lot of opportunities. This week, Gang Green faces the NFL’s top offense, which does a great job getting into the end zone. The Ravens also have one of the league’s best defenses.

Baltimore’s offensive juggernaut has been MIA the past two weeks with just 44 points scored (though, in fairness, weather conditions were a factor.) Given that New York has yielded just four touchdowns over the last four games, a modest score that allows the visitors to stay within two TDs is foreseeable. The Jets have lost but once straight-up in their last five, while the Ravens are 2-4 ATS at home.