Just a few weeks ago, the Bears covered as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Jeff Driskel-led Lions. Granted, it's Thanksgiving in Detroit vs. playing in Chicago, but now we're getting the Bears at a point lower against a third-string signal caller who is not mobile and is playing his first NFL game in a pressure situation. I'm not saying David Blough is going to be awful necessarily, but the Lions are on an 0-6 ATS streak with their top two quarterbacks. I hate laying points with these Bears, but it's the right call. Let David Montgomery cook, give Mitch Trubisky some easy throws and go grab some turkey.

The Lions started the season with lots of optimism, going 2-0-1 before losing seven of their next eight contests. QB Matthew Stafford (back) is expected to be out again and backup Jeff Driskel (hamstring) is banged up. The Bears' offense is struggling, but their defense keeps them in games. The Under has prevailed in Chicago's last five games and is the top play here.

Favorites are 9-0 straight-up and 8-1 ATS on Thanksgiving the past three years. Even if Jeff Driskel plays through his hamstring injury, I think the Bears will shut down the Lions. Chicago has beaten them three straight times. Lay the points.

Chicago got back on the winning track last week as its passing game took some positive strides against the New York Giants. Detroit's offense took a step back against Washington with QB Jeff Driskel under center. Look for a low-scoring game after a short week, which favors the defense - and in this case, the Bears.

Do not put too much stock into Detroit’s home-field edge on Turkey Day. The Lions are 5-16 ATS in their latest 21 Thursday dates, most of which have occurred on the holiday in Motor City, and have dropped the past two Thanksgiving gigs straight up. Without injured QB Matthew Stafford, the offense is a shadow of its former self. For Chicago, QB Mitch Trubisky finally lived up to expectations in the second half on Sunday, and a carryover into this short week is plausible.

With Matthew Stafford expected to be sidelined again, I can't fade the public and take the Lions here. The Bears didn't look great in a win over the Giants, with the offense making plenty of mistakes to go with their positive plays. But the Lions defense has been terrible, and the team does nothing well with Stafford's absence sinking their passing attack. At least the Bears have a great defense that ranks fourth in points per game, net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush.