Despite not playing as well at home as they have in the past, it is important to remember the teams that the Seahawks have lost to at home: the Rams and Ravens. These are no slouches, and they're certainly far better than the Bucs. This is not the same dominant defense that Seattle normally puts forth either, but it simply needs to be aggressive against Jameis Winston to turn him over, and it can be that. With the line having dropped 2.5 points and Russell Wilson operating so well against the blitz, I am not concerned about the Seahawks passing offense against the Bucs secondary.

You never know what you’re going to get when betting on the Buccaneers with Jameis Winston starting, but there’s a good chance he throws for over 300 yards, hits a few long TDs, and then throws some interceptions, allowing the other team to get short-field opportunities. That's helped Tampa's last five games go Over. It’s an ongoing trend, especially on the road where the Bucs have gone over the total in 16 of their last 21. The Seahawks will help as well. Over is the play.

Seattle's defense is horrible and this is a team Jameis Winston can actually have a decent game against. The Seahawks only have 13 sacks. They're 0-4 against the spread at home with two outright losses. Plus, Seattle just lost its center, Justin Britt, to a season-ending injury. Take the points.

Bruce Arians has a strong track record in Seattle, winning four of five visits when he coached the Cardinals. The Seahawks continue to be money on the road, but ATS losers at home. Grab the points with a Tampa team that's much better than its 2-5 record.

Jameis Winston is a turnover machine and I expect the Seahawks to capitalize at home. In my simulations, Seattle is winning by double digits. Lay the points.