This is not a good matchup for the Packers at this juncture. Green Bay is having major difficulties stopping the run, and Ezekiel Elliot is looking for an opportunity to finally break out for Dallas. Even if the Packers sell out to stop Zeke, that simply gives Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper & Co. even more room through the air. I gave Green Bay's defense a lot of credit early this season, but it now appears it was just going up against bad offenses. It is still a quality unit, but the Cowboys are better on both sides of the ball. And it doesn't hurt that Dallas doesn't have to cover Davante Adams in this one.

My ratings have Dallas three points better than Green Bay and three points for home field. Packers WR Davante Adams is out, he is worth one point. My line is Dallas -7, and with the Cowboys coming off their first loss, I expect a very focused team. Ezekiel Elliott will have a big game against the 26th-ranked run defense of the Packers. The Packers’ first three games against two below average offenses allowed just 35 points but gave up 34 to the Eagles. Dallas’ offense looks more like Philly's and not the below average offense GB faced the first three weeks.

The Packers offense is in the bottom half of the league in both points and yards, and that was with Davante Adams playing. Adams has been ruled out, and this is a game that was already set up to be tough sledding for both teams. The Cowboys have a beat-up O-line, and their offense might be overrated, anyway, since their three wins came against the awful defenses of the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. The Under is the play.

The Packers have won and covered the last two meetings and are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Both teams come off their first loss, but I like the Cowboys to bounce back better at home in this spot despite injuries on their offensive line. The spread should be closer to -5, especially with the NFL’s fifth-leading receiver, Davante Adams, being out. Cowboys get the cover.

The Cowboys didn't allow a touchdown last week and now they're back home and preparing to face a Packers team that could be without its top receiver. Dallas will attack Green Bay on the ground, chewing up clock. Go Under.

Both defenses have played well overall, though both have struggled against the run, especially Green Bay. That's bad news for the Packers against the Cowboys, right? Well, Tyron Smith is going to miss the game, and the left tackle is a huge reason the Dallas offense continues to hum. With right tackle La'el Collins also missing practice to start the week, the Cowboys O-line could struggle more than people expect. With the Packers likely missing their top pass-catcher, it seems like a great spot for this total to go Under.

Green Bay has been giving up 150 yards a game rushing and look who they're facing this week. I think Dallas will run all over them. Davante Adams isn't practicing and if he can't play, Green Bay has big problems.

If Green Bay had stuck with the running game against the Eagles on Thursday night, the outcome would have been much different. What was also evident in that game was the Packers' struggles in stopping the run. The Cowboys have one of the better running games in the league, especially when you include Dak Prescott's ability to run. Dallas will use a complementary approach on offense to knock out the Packers.