The Broncos are going to play better at some point this season, but I have to play the Chargers at -5 as my model makes them -8 at home against Flacco. Rivers will find a way to make this more competitive than it should be, but the Chargers will cover.

My model says the Chargers cover almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting good value at this point spread. The Broncos can't score, and their defense will now be without end Bradley Chubb (ACL). Meanwhile, the Chargers are back at home and get Melvin Gordon back. Expect an inspired effort from the Chargers on both sides of the ball.

Stunning stat of the NFL season: The Broncos are seeking their first turnover. Denver's once-vaunted defense ranks 19th in the NFL, giving up 5.9 yards per play and could suffer further without DE Bradley Chubb (ACL). His pass-rush counterpart, L.A.’s Melvin Ingram (knee), also is shelved for the 21st-rated team for yards yielded per snap. The Chargers’ offense gets a boost with the return of holdout RB Melvin Gordon. This all adds up to me taking the Over.

The Broncos deserve better than 0-4; their offense ranks 12th in DVOA and sixth in yards per drive but just hasn't lit up the scoreboard, ranking 23rd in points per drive. The defense hasn't played all that well but it takes time to adjust to Vic Fangio's scheme. It looks like they'll be healthier this week, while the Chargers are still dealing with a massive amount of injuries. L.A. is returning from a long road trip to Miami and hasn't played well at home as big favorites over the last year-plus. Denver finds a way to keep this one close.

Where was Denver's defense last week, at home versus Jacksonville? The Broncos' season is over already. The Chargers' secondary is still beat up, but they're home and they've always played well against Denver at home. I love the Chargers this week.