The only thing giving me a bit of pause here is the location as the Saints are tremendous at home, but even that cannot overcome the fact that the Cowboys are a far more well-rounded team with Drew Brees sidelined for New Orleans. Yes, Dallas started slow at Miami last week and NO picked up a big win at Seattle. But if you watched those games, you saw the Cowboys going through the motions a bit and the Saints benefiting from a ton of luck. The second half against the Dolphins was a get-right 30 minutes for the Cowboys, and that should carry into Sunday night as the Saints take a step back with Teddy Bridgewater.

This is a bit of a contrarian play. I get the sense most people expect Dallas to head to New Orleans and crush the Saints, and given the way the Cowboys have played, they just might. But this is still a primetime game in the Superdome, and even if Drew Brees is out, it's not like the Saints have been a passing team as of late anyway. So I'm going to fade the public road favorite here and take the Saints.

New Orleans’ notorious home-field advantage has vanished in an ATS context. The Saints last covered in the dome six games ago. They won’t have QB Drew Brees to pull another win out of the helmet in the closing seconds. The offense is more buttoned-up with QB Teddy Bridgewater, overly reliant on RB Alvin Kamara. The Cowboys held him in check last season and won’t let him run wild. Dallas QB Dak Prescott, the league’s second-ranked passer, is licking his chops in anticipation of throwing into a subpar Saints secondary.

Dallas has played excellent on the offensive side of the ball, and its defense has shown growth each week. New Orleans is coming off a great win in Seattle, where the Saints needed all three facets (offense, defense and special teams) to win. The New Orleans defense will face a tougher test this week as the Cowboys can beat you running and passing the football equally. Take Dallas.

The Saints have a good defense, and that's a tough place to play. I don't think Dak Prescott can handle that crowd, which gives New Orleans a big edge. Even without Drew Brees, I like the Saints.

I'm happy this line dropped from Cowboys -3, because I'm not buying into the Saints just because they got a win in Seattle. Their offense wasn't tested much after being staked to 13 free points off a punt return TD and fumble recovery TD. In fact, they were actually dominated 515-265 in yardage and 26-15 in first downs. You don't win many football games with those stats; teams are 2-50 SU since 2007 when gaining 270 yards or less and giving up 500 yards or more. I think Dallas is a far superior team, and since the Superdome hasn't had a particularly good home-field advantage lately, this is an easy one for me.

The Saints are winning outright in more than half my simulations, making them a strong play against the spread and on the money line. New Orleans regrouped in Week 3 in its first full game without Drew Brees and the Saints are lethal at home. Dallas has played a weak schedule and isn't as dominant as some believe.

The Saints' win Sunday in Seattle was somewhat fluky, and I like the Cowboys to control Sunday Night Football. New Orleans is giving up 5.1 yards per carry. Back Dallas to go 4-0 SU and ATS.