There's not much I love more than taking Aaron Rodgers as an underdog, particularly when he has a running game, but there is so much working against Green Bay in this matchup. Whereas the Packers are feeling themselves after beating up a terrible Dolphins team in a comfortable home game -- the only place they've won this season, by the way -- the Seahawks are coming off a pair of tough losses and know they need to get right here at home on Thursday night. Luckily for Seattle, it has not failed to cover its last seven Thursday night games, it enters 4-1 ATS over its last five games this season and, you know, it has one of the best home-field advantages in the entire NFL. The home team has done great on Thursday this season, and on a short week, I like the Seahawks to stand strong in front of the 12th Man.

Seattle has lost two straight to two excellent teams, and both came down to the wire. They have an excellent run game going, and the Pack rank just 21st in yards per carry allowed. Since a comeback win over Chicago in Week 1, Green Bay's only three wins have been at home against awful teams. Seattle is the better team, one with a great home-field advantage, and they'll continue the trend of favorites having success on Thursdays.

The Seahawks are 7-1 on Thursday Night Football under Pete Carroll. They've got a good running game and Green Bay -- I'm not going by what the Packers did against Miami. The Dolphins stink. I don't think Aaron Jones is going to have that kind of game again. Take Seattle.

The Packers have won the last three meetings each of the past three seasons and they've covered the last four meetings. The Packers have stayed Under the total in their last three. The Packers problem has been the road where they've lost all four games. Seattle lost its last two to the Rams and Chargers, but is 4-1 ATS in its last five. Should be a pick 'em game. I took the points with the Packers to finally break through on the road.

I love laying under a field goal with a Seahawks team that's 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday Night Football games. Seattle's O-line is playing well, enabling three different rushers to thrive. The Packers have yet to win a road game and this is a tough trip on a short week.