A matchup with Atlanta's defense is just what the struggling Steelers need. Lay the small number as Pittsburgh improves to 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a straight-up loss.

The Atlanta Falcons squandered a rare schedule opportunity. An early season Thursday game in Week 1 followed by three consecutive at home. At 1-3 their season is very well in jeopardy on the road against a hungry Pittsburgh team. Atlanta has a found a way to lose in all three of its games late. Look for that to happen once again and for the Steelers to squeeze out the cover.

We've got two of the worst defenses in the league and while I'd like to support the Over here, the most value with me is taking the Steelers who I made a 4.5-point favorite. Throw last week out of the window with Pittsburgh. The real story here is Atlanta's defense is on the road again and a Pittsburgh offense that has been devalued. The home edge is huge here, Pittsburgh is better, and the spread doesn't indicate it. Steelers get the cover.

Both these defenses have been largely nonexistent this year, but while the Steelers are middle of the pack in DVOA (19th) and points allowed per drive (17th), the Falcons are horrendous, giving up a league-worst 2.8 points per drive while ranking 30th in defensive DVOA. They're not getting any healthier on that side of the ball, with Grady Jarrett joining the ranks of players missing for this game. If the Falcons offense isn't perfect in this outdoors game, the Steelers should give us the cover.

The Under is 7-2 since the start of 2017 in games where the Falcons play outdoors, and they've been held to 17 points or fewer in four of those games, including in Week 1 against the Eagles. I like making the contrary play here with everyone expecting more fireworks in this game and the total sky high at 58. The Steelers defense has been better than you probably think this year, ranking just 16th in points per allowed per drive and 19th in DVOA. The Falcons offense won't run as smoothly this week, and that keeps this game Under.

Neither team has a defense. Go Over despite the huge total.

A record seven of 15 games in Week 5 boast totals of 50 or higher. This one is the loftiest. Atlanta is deprived on defense, owing partly to injuries. Pittsburgh has been points-heavy, too, though largely because it habitually trails early and enters scrambling mode. Yes, Over players are killing it, but 57.5 is crazy high, especially for a team (Falcons) that has gone Under on five consecutive away dates.