Wish I'd jumped on this total earlier but I see the Bills focusing on their ground game and playing much better defense at home today. Look for something in the neighborhood of 24-13 Chargers.

This is one of those games where perception is weighted so far from reality on one of the teams that I had to play the game. Buffalo got rocked 47-3 last week at Baltimore, but this is a new week, they're at home and they're not using QB Nathan Peterman. These are professionals and most of the Bills players were on the squad that made the playoffs last season. The Chargers are missing their best defensive player (Joey Bosa) and have to fly clear across the country and play a 10 a.m. PT game on Sunday. I'm taking the points.

The Bills certainly didn't pass the eye test in week 1. However, my model says this number is inflated with the Chargers traveling across the country for an early start on the road in Buffalo. My numbers make the Bills +4.5 underdogs with Josh Allen take the reps at QB. The Chargers looked decent at times, but it's important to recognize that the Chiefs are a bottom five defense. Take the points and enjoy the significant +7.5 number.

The Bills are awful. No question about it. Football Outsiders has them as more than twice as bad as any other team. And even using those numbers, this line is too high. The Chargers just aren't well-coached, and they're in a tough spot after losing to their biggest divisional rivals this season and playing a team they'll expect to blow out, despite being a West Coast team in a 1 p.m. game. I didn't see the Chargers do much to fix their run defense this offseason, so this could be a game where LeSean McCoy feasts.

Never, ever give a touchdown to a home team -- except in rare situations like this one. Buffalo rookie QB Josh Allen could not even beat out Nathan Peterman for the gig last week. It turned disastrous for the Bills, and they have shoved in Allen as the starter behind a sieve-like offensive line. L.A. has elected to not rush ace sacksterJoey Bosa (foot) back this week, which is a favor to Buffalo, but the Chargers can afford to wait another week. The D has contributed to the team’s six straight Unders on the road. Four dropped passes, possibly two for TDs, doomed L.A. against Kansas City last Sunday. Won’t happen again.

The Bills are definitely going to be an Under team this year with their situation on offense, and they have a strong enough defense that I think will show up at home and keep this game under the total. The Chargers offense could need a half to wake up with this early start time, so the first-half Under in particular should be a wise investment.