The trusty projection model now see the Cardinals winning this game straight up in 60 percent of simulations Sunday against the Titans. Let's skip pocketing the field goal and get extra profit with a money-line wager on Arizona.

The Titans are 8-4, but they're nowhere near as talented as their record suggests, sporing a negative point differential and negative DVOA. Even when they win a game by more than one score, it takes a garbage-time TD when a first down is all that's needed. Since beating Jacksonville in Week 2, they've had trouble on the road, either getting blown out by good teams or struggling against bad ones. Arizona feels like the latter, but their defense is good enough (sixth in DVOA) to give Tennessee trouble, and with the Titans' pass defense ranking 25th in DVOA, the door is open for Blaine Gabbert to have a solid day and get the win.

The Titans had no business covering last week and have been a poor bet all season. Tennessee will struggle to run against this Arizona defense, which allows 3.7 yards per carry. Blaine Gabbert should bounce back from his mistake-filled performance against the Rams by exploiting the Titans' vulnerable secondary. Take the points.