New England's defense took a beating the first four weeks of the season, but you knew Bill Belichick would turn things around. The Patriots have given up just 51 points the last four weeks. The Broncos were thrashed for 51 points in their last game versus the Eagles. But the Denver defense still ranks 4th in the NFL, allowing just 4.9 yards per play. Denver still has a great defense and will be highly motivated in the national TV spotlight against Tom Brady. I don't even need to talk about the Broncos' offensive woes. Go Under.

Facing a Patriots team coming off a bye week would seem to be a huge concern for a Denver team that has lost four straight. Yet, quarterback Brock Osweiler has showcased his best performances in prime time. He’s boasted wins over the Bengals, Colts and Patriots in 2015. Look for the Broncos to get on track and challenge an inflated number.

I know betting against Bill Belichick coming off a bye is idiotic. Here's the thing: so does everyone else. Despite the Patriots heading to Denver to face a defense that's given them trouble over their last five meetings (including playoffs), the Patriots are laying more than a TD in this one. They couldn't win by seven at the Bucs or Jets, and those aren't exactly a pair of juggernauts. Denver's defense steps up after getting embarrassed last week, and their job is going to be much easier with no Marcus Cannon or Chris Hogan. The offense gets enough done on the ground to keep this close.

A long, winding road has brought Denver home for the first game since Oct. 1 in a stadium where it is 3-0 straight-up. QB Brock Osweiler, just promoted ahead of the ousted Trevor Siemian, guided the Broncos past New England two years ago. This is Patriots QB’s Tom Brady least-favorite venue, where he is 3-7 outright. Denver’s rugged rushing defense should trump the Pats’ ground game, and the rusty Osweiler should get some looks against the league’s bottom-rated pass D.

Are the Patriots really back as their four-game win streak suggests? Or is it more of who they played in those last four games that deserves most of the credit? The first four games, the Patriots allowed 32 ppg. In the last four they've allowed 12.7, giving the appearance coach Bill Belichick fixed things. But let's consider it was a five-point win at Tampa Bay, a 7-point win at the Jets a 23-7 win against a struggling Falcons squad and an 8-point win against the Chargers. All four stayed Under and they covered three of four -- just barely in all three. I think Denver fits in that group, but the Broncos' defense is so much better. Under is the top play here.

The Denver defense was embarrassed against the Eagles last week, and I expect a much better effort from them at home against the Patriots, an offense they've played well over their last five matchups (including playoffs). I also can't see this version of the Broncos offense scoring many points with their issues at QB. They'll also face a Patriots defense that hasn't allowed more than 17 points in four straight games. This is a relatively high total for this particular matchup, and I'm jumping on the Under.

New England was an offensive juggernaut and a rumor defensively in its first four outings, which resulted in points totals of 69, 56, 69 and 63. The last four games have painted quite a different picture. Total points scored: 33, 41, 30 and 34. As a result, the total for Sunday night is the lowest for the Patriots this season. At the same time, it’s the highest for Denver, which is the more persuasive circumstance for me. The 73 points amassed in the Broncos-Eagles game last Sunday might give Under players pause, but that was an aberration. The Broncos’ previous four outings generated 26, 23, 21 and 38 points. Their games do not tax the scoreboard operator, no matter if the quarterback is Trevor Siemian (benched), Brock Osweiler (starting) or Paxton Lynch (still waiting). Denver did score a misleading 23 points in Philadelphia. Its offensive output was just 226 yards, so the woes should continue. It broke through the 20-point barrier just once before -- in the opener. Consider, too, a disparity in points allowed by the Broncos home versus away. On the road, foes are averaging 42 per game. In mile-high territory, the yield is 18.

The reeling Broncos gave up 51 points to the Eagles in their fourth-straight loss, so next up is the No. 1 offense in the NFL. New England covers in 59 percent of my simulations, making it a solid value.

The Broncos' defense is still good despite last week’s performance against the Eagles. The reason why it looked so bad is because their offense struggles to sustain drives and turns the ball over, putting them in bad situations. Look for New England to take full advantage of the multiple opportunities Denver's offense will provide.