The Steelers are a great team, but they don't deserve to be 9.5 point favorites vs. the Jets. The public is overreacting to the Steelers blowout victory over Kansas City last week. Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets to bounce back this week. Look for Forte and Powell to be heavily involved in the passing game out of the backfield. I don't think the Jets will win, but I do think they fall within the number. Steelers win by a touchdown.

Let’s take a deep dive into the series history. The teams have met 11 times this century. Only once did they combine for 40 or more points (43). Five games, two of them overtime, wound up in the 30s, with four in the 20s. One final score: 6-0. That won’t happen here, but the overmatched Jets will attempt to shorten the game with runs, given QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s recent wildness and the possible absence of WR Eric Decker (shoulder).

This pick worries me as a clearly public side, but the Jets have proved terrible at throwing the ball and defending the pass, ranking 32nd in DVOA in the former and 31st in the latter. We know that the Steelers can throw it around with impunity, absolutely shredding a good Chiefs pass defense last week. Their eighth-ranked rush defense should slow down a Jets attack that may have to rely more on Bilal Powell if Matt Forte isn’t at 100 percent. Once six-pick Fitzpatrick falls behind, the Steelers can start playing for pick-sixes, and they should cover with ease.