The short-handed Timberwolves predictably struggled in a Game 5 blowout loss, and it stands to reason Game 6 on their home floor presents their best chance of winning this first-round series. Despite going without star Anthony Edwards, this Minnesota team plays with much better energy on its home floor and a depth-limited Denver club has lacked resilience and poise on the road. The Nuggets have failed to cover in 8 straight road games and, should they escape with a win Thursday night, we believe it will be by a razor-thin margin over a Minnesota club that we expect to fight until the final buzzer.

Christian Braun has went under his points prop in three straight games. A lot of that was due to Minnesota sagging off Cam Johnson and Spencer Jones daring them to make shots. Both had success in game five with 18 and 20 points, so look for Minnesota’s defense to tighten up on both. With Denver’s offense sputtering late, Braun was the one who hit the dagger three pointer to end Minnesota’s rally in game five. That should give Braun a confidence boost, and I expect Braun to raise his shot attempts after averaging less than five over the last three games. Play his over.

With Minnesota's rotation shortened due to injury, Naz Reid should play 25-plus minutes in Game 6. He's had three games in this series with 24-plus minutes, grabbing nine, nine and eight rebounds. At home, Reid averaged 7.3 rebounds this season compared to 5.2 boards on the road. Reid shot 50 percent over the past two games after a slow start to the series. Look for Timberwolves coach Chris Finch to trust the six-year vet with good minutes in Game 6.