I think this just got a bit more worthwhile with Immanuel Quickley ruled out for the Dinos. That means for sure a few more shot attempts for Scottie Barnes, and he will be primary ball-handler (about half is anyways). And that guy rarely comes off the court in a close game. One of the most underrated players in the league -- a prime Draymond Green in some ways. I guess a concern might be a Cavs rout and Barnes doesn't play heavy minutes, but I'm not really seeing a rout despite the spread. Our model has Barnes at about 34 PRA.

The Raptors are a long, versatile defensive team. During the regular season, they finished fifth in defensive rating and fourth in turnovers forced per game. They were also a respectable 22-19 on the road. Although all three matchups came in the first half of the season, the Raptors went 3-0 against the Cavaliers. I think they can at least keep Game 1 close enough to cover this big number.

Caesar’s. Scottie Barnes was under this line in 35/52 games this season when playing with both Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett (and under in 4/5 without Immanuel Quickley, who is day-to-day). Narrowing it down further, Barnes is under in 21/26 games within that subset against the top 10 teams in paint points allowed, in which Cleveland ranks fifth. Almost 70% of Barnes’ made baskets and 60% of his assists are in the paint. And notably, Barnes shot 26% from three on the road this season (similar to last season). This series reads more to be Brandon Ingram heavy, and I have Barnes projected closer to 22.5 points plus assists, even with an expected minutes bump.

James Harden has seen his numbers decline since joining the Cavaliers ahead of the trade deadline. Harden is sharing the court with another high volume player that needs the ball in his hands in order to be most effective. In a game that projects to be low scoring and paced downs this looks like a natural spot to fade Harden, coupled with him having struggled throughout the playoffs during his career.