Tyrese Haliburton took is personally when he was voted the most overrated player in the NBA. Haliburton’s ability to control and dictate tempo is unmatched and he is certainly the catalyst of the Pacers success. With that being said, this is a large line for the All-World PG, not to mention he will happily defer or pass up shot attempts if he feels his teammates can get better looks. I’d play this down to (-180).

Though Jalen Brunson, who scored another 31 in Game 4, is doing his best, the Knicks are beginning to tire. We saw this in the 4th Q on Tuesday when struggling to get stops vs. the Pacers' onslaught led by Tyrese Haliburton, who posted 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds in Game 4. Still, Rick Carlisle has been getting big buckets throughout the playoffs from others such as Pascal Siakam (his second 30-point game of the series in Game 4), Game 1 hero Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner, and an assortment of contributors from his bench (on Tuesday it was Bennedict Mathurin with 20 points; Obi Toppin and CJ McConnell have also posted big buckets in this series). Play Pacers-Knicks Over.

Pascal Siakam is averaging 37 minutes per game in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, he has averaged just 4.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists. He has combined for eight or fewer rebounds and assists in three of the four games. The only game he went over this line was when he had 11 combined in Game 1, which went to overtime. During the regular season, the Knicks allowed the second-fewest rebounds per game and the seventh-fewest assists per game in the league. I like Siakam’s chances of hitting this under.

A move to the bench has not been a detriment to Josh Hart. He played 34 minutes in that role in Game 3, producing eight points and 10 rebounds. Over 36 minutes off the bench in Game 4, he had 12 points and 11 rebounds. He has now reached double-digit rebounds in three of four games in this series against the Pacers, who allowed the ninth-most rebounds per game during the regular season. During the regular season, Hart averaged 10.0 rebounds per game at home. He feeds off the energy of the home crowd, so I like his chances of hitting this over.

The Knicks are in trouble, but they only need to win one game--not three--on Thursday to stay alive. Still some real concerns for NY, including the supposed edge of playing at Madison Square Garden. Even Spike Lee can't explain the Knicks' 3-5 straight-up mark at home in these playoffs, which includes NY losses in Games 1 & 2 of this series. Now there is worry about the condition of Karl-Anthony Towns, dealing with a knee contusion. We suspected from the outset that Indiana's depth would provide the ultimate advantage vs. the Knicks, and we've seen nothing in the first four games to change our opinion. The Pacers are well capable of closing out another series in a Game 5 on the road. Play Pacers.

With a projection of 16 and 7 we are closer to Myles Turner's season average of 22 (52-34, 60.5% over 19.5) and are buying low on his 19 average (3-1 Under) in this series. Mitchell Robinson starting and playing more minutes has helped NY build big rebounding advantages but in Game 4 his +/- was -20 so maybe that leads Thibs to go back to his 'beloved' strategy of running the Villanova players into the ground. If Robinson is not on the floor more than 18 minutes then that gives Turner some opportunity to operate down low more than usual (shooting 18/24, 75% on twos vs just 4/17, 23.5% on threes) vs a hurting Karl-Anthony Towns.

The recipe for success for Indiana has been the same: fewer turnovers and shoot well from three point range (41, 43, 41% in wins). These factors have overcome their often significant rebounding disadvantage (-11, -6, -7 in their wins). So the big coaching adjustment by Thibs of starting Mitchell Robinson in an effort to really dominate the boards has resulted in dominating the boards but not the scoreboard. The model projects IND to hit 37% of 35 3pt attempts (13 makes) and NY to hit just 34% of 33 attempts and this +6 points offsets the +5 rebounding advantage we project for the Knicks. Six points is worth more than the roughly 3 points that NY gets from their rebounding advantage.

Pacers have too many scoring options for the Knicks to shutdown. It's a missmatch. Pacers would have swept this already if they'd have maintained their tempo and kept pushing when up 20 in Game 3. They learned from that and will force Knicks to play at their pace with Tyrese Halliburton controlling game from the point. Pacers are over this in 14 of their last 17 games. Pacers are over this in 13 of their last 14 on the road. IND has 120.8 offensive rating on road in playoffs, 62.6 TS%, and bonkers 2.22 asst/TO ratio. Averaging 120/G on road in playoffs. NYK D is far closer to middling than special and their starters get exploited in the own end of the court.

I believe the Pacers will end this series here, but will take those 5 points. If is turns out KAT is iffy for this game, I expect the line to move. Knicks will not be able to keep pace scoring without huge games from him and Jalen Brunson. Pacers too efficient offensively and they shoot three ball better on road and their superior assist/TO ratio will be a big deal in this game again as it's been all series. They have the best player in series and it's not close. NYK 3-5 ATS last 8 games and 2-5 ATS last 7 at The Garden. Deeper series goes more Pacers far superior depth becomes a deciding factor.