The Cleveland Cavaliers had their first flat performance of the postseason in game four’s loss against the Indiana Pacers. Down three games to one, they can not allow the Pacers to dictate the tempo early on like game four. Look for the Cavaliers to show the focus they did in game three, and extend this series at least one more game. Lay the big number on Cleveland.

Max Strus has made at least three 3-pointers in six of eight playoff games this spring. He's shooting 42.6 percent from deep in these playoffs. In this series, 35 of his 48 shots have come from deep. That's his job, and he'll need to keep shooting for the Cavs to stay alive. This is a decent price on a guy with a clearly defined role.

Andrew Nembhard was relatively quiet in Games 3 and 4 after showing up big in the first two games in Cleveland. I'm expecting a competitive game and for Nembhard to return to making a big impact in 35-plus minutes. With all the attention on Tyrese Haliburton, Nembhard is shooting 50 percent from deep and averaging a team-high 7.5 assists. Look for Nembhard, who elevates his game in the postseason, to clear this prop total for the seventh time in 10 playoff games this year.

Despite the Cavaliers being blown out in Game 4, Darius Garland still scored 21 points over just 27 minutes. Donovan Mitchell (ankle) could be out for Game 5. Even if he plays, he might be limited by his injury. The Cavaliers will likely ask Garland to step up his production as the team tries to stave off elimination. Garland averaged 21.2 points and shot 43.2% from behind the arc at home this season, compared to 19.9 points and 36.7% shooting from behind the arc on the road. Don’t be surprised if he blows past 20 points in this game.

No reason to overthink Game 5 and think this series is suddenly going to slow down pace-wise...no matter Donovan Mitchell's status. Four-for-four overs in this series is a byproduct of the Pacers' preferred up-tempo and the fact the Cavs don't mind playing the same way. We'll see about Mitchell (ankle), who sat out the second half of Sunday's Game 4, but Cleveland is scoring 121 ppg in the playoffs. Save seven bad minutes in front of halftime in Game 3, the Pacers' offense has been clicking, shooting better than 50% from the floor in the postseason, with six DD scorers. Don't expect Indiana to pull back in a potential close-out game. Playoff overs now on a 24-10 run. Play Pacers-Cavs Over.

We'll see Donovan Mitchell's status for Game 5, but even if he makes the post, who knows if we see the same Mitchell who twice scored 40+ earlier in this series. No one else on the Cavs is having a particular good time of it vs. the Pacers, and Cleveland has lost in this series with Mitchell going full-bore, too. This price seems to be putting a real premium on the must-win aspect of Game 5 for Cleveland, after trailing by 41 at halftime on Sunday. But the Pacers have also won 6 of 8 vs. Cleveland this season, and there's enough vet presence on the Indiana side to not take the foot off the pedal with a chance to close the series. Play Pacers.

The Pacers are quite live for me to win here. And if Donovan Mitchell is out, or limited, then the offensive-challenged Cavs could really be in trouble with the one guy who was a scoring force for them. The Pacers have a 61.7 TS% in this series, tops in the second round, and no Mitchell to run with their ball handlers would be a big problem. Cavs bigs haven't been nearly impactful enough thus far. Indiana is getting 21 paint touch points/G in series; Cavs just 15. One area the Cavs dominate is drive scoring, but if Mitchell isn't there, or isn't Superman, how much will that dry up? The Cavs are 3-12 ATS last 15 at home. IND is 3-1 ATS in the series.

You will want to act now on this line because pretty much every other book is at 13.5 and as high as -118 on the over, so it won't last much longer. The model projects him for 14.2 points. Allen averages 14.3 points at home (25-20 over), which is much better than his 12.7 (21-24 over) road average. After doing next to nothing in Game 4 (2 points in 20 minutes), we expect Allen to come out aggressively in Game 5. If the Cavs perimeter shots are not falling, it leads to more offensive rebound and put back opportunities for Allen. The Cavs will get back to focusing on getting their core starters to lead them and not younger, newer additions like Ty Jerome, etc.

Indiana blew out Cleveland, despite Ben Mathurin (19 points in game 2, 23 in game 3) getting ejected early and Tyrese Haliburton not doing much (11 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists), showing the diversity of their offense. Donovan Mitchell is not a James Harden level playoff choker, but for every great playoff game he seems to have a dud performance. Bettors are assuming Game 4 is the clear dud performance for Mitchell and the Cavs, and while usually the team down 1-3 is the one without pressure, the opposite is true in this case. All of the pressure is on the Cavs not to embarrass themselves with a gentleman's sweep as the No. 1 seed in the 2nd round.

Shame on me for not jumping back on the full game over in Game 4 and focusing on the Cavs instead. This series is what I thought it was - straight over. These teams are now over in 8 of their last 11 meetings and 3 of 4 in this series. Even with Donovan Mitchell iffy we will get pure desperation from Cavs. Cleveland is over in 7 of last 9, all going over by multi possessions. The Pacers over in 8 of last 11, all by multi possessions, going over on average by 6.8 points. They bring out the points in each other.