This is a low combo line for Russell Westbrook who has been more good than bad throughout the Nuggets postseason run. Denver is having to rely on Westbrook as they play a very thin 6-7 man rotation, not to mention Michael Porter Jr. really struggling, particularly on the road. Russ is coming off two poor performances and I think he has a good shot to bounce back and see a few extra minutes in the event MPJ continues to struggle.

Back to Paycom Center should benefit the Thunder, who in their last home game put 149 points on the Nuggets. SGA, hitting only 23% beyond the arc in the entire playoffs, should at least enjoy getting back home after hitting for 33 and 34, respectively, in the first two games of the series. Denver has stolen two games in this series but the Nuggets have less margin for error especially if Nikola Jokic doesn't have his normal big game, the case on Sunday when he scored 27 but on an inefficient 7 for 22 from the floor. Denver also didn't hit a triple in the 4th Q until Aaron Gordon's bomb with 1.6 seconds to go gave the Nuggets a gift spread cover. Play Thunder

No one is going to slow down Nikola Jokic. However, having Isaiah Hartstein to at least provide some resistance for him has been important. Hartenstein had eight points and 14 rebounds in the Thunder’s victory in Game 4. He has reached at least 20 combined points and rebounds in all four games of the series. While he only logged 22 minutes in a blowout win for the Thunder in Game 2, Hartenstein has logged at least 29 minutes in each of the other three games. With a key role in hand, I like his chances to hit this over again.

Aaron Gordon presents a difficult matchup for the Thunder. He's shooting 54.5 percent from deep in this series while averaging 17.3 points and 10.8 rebounds. He's coming off a 16-rebound performance in Game 4. Three of the four games have been close, with Gordon getting 39, 46 and 38 minutes. I expect Denver to be competitive in Game 5 (as opposed to the Game 2 massacre), giving Gordon the minutes he needs.

Michael Porter Jr. has struggled in the postseason seeing his scoring average dip to just 10 PPG on 40% shooting. MPJ has been just dreadful on the road as well having failed to eclipse this line 4/5 road games, while averaging just 7.8 PPG and shooting 13-43 from the field. He’s also playing significantly fewer minutes and considering both the blowout potential coupled with the strength of OKC’s defense, it’s hard to see Porter turning things around in Game 5. I would play this for a full unit at 11.5.

FanDuel. I feel very comfortable running back our points plus rebounds bet on Isaiah Hartenstein, at the same line and price we secured for Game 4. Hartenstein has now cleared this total in all six games he’s played against the Nuggets this season. His rebounding chances have spiked dramatically over the last two games, as Nikola Jokic continues to struggle shooting. And on the scoring side, I do think Hartenstein has some upside, as the Thunder would be wise to target Jokic on the defensive end, in an effort to tire him.

Thunder can build big leads on everyone; its what they do. Holding them can be a different story. But the NBA's dominant first-half team in regular season has kept it going here. Nuggets schedule has been brutal and the Joker be out of gas. OKC has a ridiculous +26.1 first half net rating in this series, with a 2.85 asst/TO ratio, winning on boards (where supposed to be vulnerable) at 53.3% reb%, playing at fastest pace to exploit DEN tired legs (105.3) with Nuggets enduring brutal 42.4 EFG in first half. Nuggets started slow all season. OKC is +13 in first half in this series. Get cute and play scared with the lead, and Nuggets heart shows up late, but the first half has lopsided.

The model line is OKC -16.5 and gives the Thunder a 67% chance of covering -10. Both teams and both MVP candidates are struggling offensively, but we see OKC and SGA as the team and player most likely to regress to their mean in Game 5. It is also far more likely that at least two of SGA's teammates, like All-Star Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Lou Dort, and Isaiah Hartenstein (that baseline flip shot he missed repeatedly in Denver), will have bounce-back games than Jokic's teammates. Aaron Gordon has been awesome for Denver, and OKC's coaches will emphasize the need to cover him tight from three and put a body on him when he is going for an offensive rebound.