DraftKings / Caesar’s. Julius Randle has failed to clear this rebounds and assists line in all four games this series, and in six of seven total games against the Lakers this season. Defensively, his main assignment has been LeBron James - defending a high usage player has sapped some rebound chances and taken him out of position. And his aggressiveness offensively, looking for his shot, has lessened his assist opportunities.

Austin Reaves has only cleared this line once in the series, but he has begun to heat up, making 10 3-pointers over the past two games. Reaves played only 35 minutes last game but is averaging 39 in the series. Look for him to play close to 40 minutes and thrive off passes from Luka Doncic and LeBron James.

LeBron looked gassed to me at the conclusion of Game 4. LeBron did get an extra day off, however this game has a low total of just 209 points and this is a huge line for him. I also like the way Minnesota can defend him and bother him with their length I expect some adjustments to be made and as long as LeBron doesn’t get to the line 10+ times I think he’ll stay below this combo line. I would scale to a half unit at 42.5.

The 2nd half line is a higher 106.5 because of OT points. We don’t have a ton of value with a 104 projection but this is more of a hunch that LeBron and Luka will have fresh legs in the first half and are likely to shoot better from deep earlier in the game than later. I think the Lakers know they can only win if they play at a fast pace offensively and shoot well, so I think this could become a shooting contest without a ton of defense, especially in the first half.

The Lakers’ lone win came when Minnesota shot an aberrantly poor 20% on just 25 3pt attempts. The Lakers with an older LeBron and Luka playing hefty minutes are NOT getting any better defensively and it will be impossible for them to shut down MIN from three. The bad news for LA is they dropped the last two games despite shooting 40%+ from 3pt range on 40+ attempts. The Lakers are not likely to sustain such a high level of volume + accuracy from three point range. The Lakers are a very good home team (+4 point differential) but they are not vastly better than Minnesota is as a road team this season (+3 point differential).

The Lakers are losing these games playing at their ceiling. They dropped the last two games despite shooting 40%+ from 3pt range on 40+ attempts. The Lakers are a very good home team (+4 point differential) but they are not vastly better than Minnesota is as a road team this season (+3 point differential). The Lakers’ lone win came when Minnesota shot an aberrantly poor 20% on just 25 3pt attempts. It might be the end of the road for LAL.

Luka and LBJ are both averaging over 41 min/G and lack of trusted depth looks like a real problem for JJ Reddick now after his fourth-quarter stunt last game. That dynamic duo is -11.6 in the series and MIN is the better offensive and defensive team and has excelled in the clutch. MIN has won 6 of its last 8 road playoff games and 7 of the last 10. They won't be intimidated here and I wonder if the crowd turns on the Lakers with a slow start. Wolves vice grips D is a real problem for Lakers and the offensive sets looks pretty static. Wolves have the third-best offensive rating in the playoffs thus far. They learned how to put teams away last spring.

Rudy Gobert has only 14 points across 4 playoff games, but he showed a bit more activity in the last one with 6 field goal attempts. Averaging 12 points and nearly 2 assists during the regular season, Gobert could benefit if the Lakers focus more on the perimeter defensively. That could open opportunities for dunks or lobs inside. We’ve adjusted his projection down for the playoffs, but still have him finishing with 8.4 combined points and assists.

The Wolves are very live to win this for me. JJ Reddick trying to ride just his starters last game could blow up in more ways than one. The Lakers can't put these guys away and no lead is safe. If it's close late, have to like the deeper and fresher Wolves. MIN 125.0 offense rating in 4th quarter in the series and LA 82.1. The Lakers 40.3 TS% in the 4th quarter is lowest in the playoffs thus far. ANT and Co seem to be in LBJ's head when it matters most and Reddick getting exposed in his first postseason as NBA head coach.