Tyler Herro went 7 of 17 from deep in the first two games of this series, then 1 of 3 in the Game 3 blowout loss. With the series decided and the Heat's only goal being respectability, I'm expecting Herro to let it fly from deep. I'm also expecting a little less defensive intensity from Cleveland. Herro went 8 of 17 in Miami's two play-in games, so Game 3 was an anomaly in terms of volume.

Time to mention the 1942 Maple Leafs, 1975 Islanders, 2004 Red Sox, 2010 Flyers, and Kings, the rare handful of pro sports sides that have recovered from 0-3 deficits to win a playoff series. Don't hold your breath, as it's never happened in the NBA, but then again we're not asking the Heat to do anything more than not get humbled the way they were in Saturday's Game 3 when absorbing their worst-ever playoff defeat, smashed 124-87 by the Cavs, who can wrap up the series tonight. Can Cleveland hit the same sort of crescendo it did on Saturday when a 33-5 run into the 2nd Q buried Miami. A normal game from Tyler Herro (only 13 on Saturday) keeps Heat closer. Play Heat

The line is at -9 (-112) on FanDuel so -8.5 is looking like a line you have to move on before it moves closer to the -10 that the model projects. Cleveland is dominating the series and even before the playoffs, Miami has NOT had any home court advantage this season with basically the same win%, and point differential on the road and home. Cleveland is now an impressive 27-15 ATS in road games with a +8 pt differential. Given the lack of motivation from the Miami side I see this game as being a better than average result for Cleveland and in this case that means a a 9-point or better win.

We are projecting Bam Adebayo for 4.2 assists which implies a solid 65%+ chance of 4 or more vs 55.5% odds. This is probably the last game we’ll have this season to take Bam’s over on assists which is a very consistently good play at home. He averages 4.6 at home (4.0 on the road) and has gone over this in 27 of 40 games (66.7%). He has been hit or miss in this series with 3, 9 and 1 but was 19-9, 68% down the stretch. The over is a reflection of Miami players hitting threes so hopefully they come out hot early fueling both this play and the overall game over play.

DraftKings. Jarrett Allen has remained under this line in all three games of this series, and in all six games against the Heat this season. In fact, with Evan Mobley active, Allen averages 11.6 rebounds plus assists, and is under 12.5 in 20 of his last 24 full games.

Darius Garland (toe) is listed as questionable for Game 4. With him sidelined in Game 3, the Cavaliers still won by 37 points. They have won all three games of this series by at least nine points. Even if Garland is out again, the Cavaliers have Ty Jerome who can provide a scoring punch in his absence. The Cavaliers are the vastly superior team and have shown it throughout this series. Look for them to complete the sweep with another lopsided win.

DraftKings. You know the drill by now - Davion Mitchell has now cleared this line in 15 of the last 17 games the Heat have played against non-tanking teams. This includes three straight clearances against Cleveland (16, 18 and 18 points). Now starting, and clearly not the reason for the Heat being down 0-3, look for Davion to play at least 34 minutes again.

Donovan Mitchell was Clark Kent instead of Super Man in Game 3 and the Cavs still hung 120 on them, again. This just looks like an awful defensive match-up for the Heat, above all else, and Darius Garland missing the game doesn't change much for me. The Cavs have a ridiculous offensive rating of 134.1 in the series, they seem intent on killing this off and their effective shooting % of 61.5 is obscene for a playoff series. Miami is getting exposed on the perimeter with the Cavs starters shooting 44% from three. I don't expect a Spoelstra coached team to roll over completely, so the Cavs will have to keep moving and shooting in the 4th quarter.