Just think this has come down too far with Damian Lillard cleared after a month off. Maybe 3 years ago this is a mega-difference but the 34-year-old hasn't played in a month and will have his minutes monitored. This really feels like the Bucks saying hey lets get our guys back and get in sync and then be ready to sweep the next two at home when the series shifts. Indiana is 16-4 SU & ATS in its past 20 at home.

I'm buying low on Kyle Kuzma after his historically bad Game 1 playoff performance where he recorded as many stats as I did. Taking that game out though, Kuzma had eclipsed this total in 13 of his last 15 entering the playoffs. I'm betting the Bucks get Kuzma more involved Tuesday and he bounces back after the worst game of his career.

Kyle Kuzma had an historically bad game 1 with 0 PTS (0-5 FGA), REB, AST, STL, BLK in 22 min so we have an obvious buy low line. The model had the Bucks get worse after trading Middleton for Kuzma, but he actually played much better with the Bucks improving FG% by +3.5% (+5.2% from 3pt range). Kuzma averages around 7.5 REB+AST as a Wizard and Buck and this season he actually averaged +1.8 more in road games (8.8) than home games. Despite the Under coming in 6-1, he had a 8 game over stretch from Mar 20 to Apr 3 and the over is 28-6, 82.4% on the road.

This is the ultimate buy-low opportunity for Kyle Kuzma after he posted a goose egg across the board in Game 1 — 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, and no notable stats to speak of. Kuzma has averaged 7.8 combined rebounds and assists per game with Milwaukee this season, so this line is set more than two full R+A below his season average. Following what was arguably the worst game of his career, expect Kuzma to come out aggressive and engaged. Our model projects him at 7 combined rebounds and assists, giving us value at this number.

Appears to be quite a match-up problem for the Bucks team that lacks sufficient inter-changeable pieces on defense. Their drop coverage allows for great looks outside and in the mid range and Brook Lopez appears particularly vulnerable here. Do we think Kyle Kuzma is gonna pretend to defend anyone? No Kris Middleton seems to be kind of a big deal here. Turner quite likely to attempt more than just 12 shots tonight and get to the line more than twice as well. Wouldn't be shocked if he dropped 22+ with the Pacers opening it up smelling blood vs a less athletic opponent.

Does Dane Lillard's return do much for Bucks sagging defense? Is he going to be able to matchup with Myles Turner in the mid range or be able to run around with TJ McConnell and Tyreese Haliburton all over the court? Kyle Kuzma wouldn't be any worse for MIL but will he be much better? Bucks will shoot the three-ball better but this still looks like a bad matchup for them. Their lack of depth concerns me. The Pacers have won 16 of their last 20 games, including playoffs, since a three-game losing skid in early March. They've won 14 of their last 16 at home. Bucks will push them more here but likely have to try to turn this series when they get home.

This prop is getting pricier for good reason. People are understanding how uncharacteristic Game 1 was for Kyle Kuzma. Kuzma has averaged 7.8 combined rebounds and assists per game with Milwaukee this season, so this line is set more than two full R+A below his season average. After what arguably was the worst game of his career, I expect Kuzma at the very least to put effort in crashing the boards and control the things he can, even if his shot is off again.