Today’s play-in spreads are competitive to top seeds that await in both the Eastern and Western Conference. That tells me that the market believes the Orlando Magic are better then their 7th seed, which may have been the case if they did not struggle with injuries all season long. This is also the third matchup in a week’s period between both teams, which I believe bodes to the advantage of the home team. Take Orlando on the spread as they solidify the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference.

After cooling on Orlando, we have begun to take notice again in recent weeks as Jamahl Mosley has had some time to get the lineup back in sync with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, as well as adjusting minus injured Jalen Suggs. Before Sunday's meaningless loss, Orlando had won 9 of 11, including a key 119-112 win over Atlanta at Kia Center last Tuesday, paced by Banchero's 33 points. Before facing some teams that were gearing it down in the final week, the Hawks had lost 4 of 5, the only win a game in which they allowed 134 to the lowly Jazz. Play Magic.

Orlando beat Atlanta playing over their heads this season. Orlando is a team that shoots 32% from 3-point range, even at home. They shot 41% against the Hawks a few days ago and still lost. I think Atlanta stays within the 5.5 points here.

If I had to play ATS, I'd play the Hawks but this time of year is usually about defense and Orlando shines on that end, while Atlanta is one of the NBA's worst teams defensively. It doesn't help that starting center Clint Capela has been out since March 10 and won't return tonight. Hawks star Trae Young shot just 26.7% from deep vs. the Magic in the season series. Orlando won all three home playoff games last year against a Cleveland team that was better than this Atlanta club.

Paolo Banchero scored at least 30 points in nine of his final 14 games during the regular season. Last season, he scored at least 30 points in three of seven games against the Cavaliers in the first round. One of the keys was that he logged at least 38 minutes in five of those games. He also scored at least 30 points in all three games against the Hawks this season. The Hawks played a the third-fastest pace in the league this season, so Banchero should receive plenty of opportunities to score against them again.

Trae Young and Atlanta like to play uptempo...that's no secret. Yet that Orlando suddenly seems more comfortable at a faster speed is a bit noteworthy. Perhaps it's just the evolution of what is still a very young Magic roster that played it very close to the vest for Jamahl Mosely last season and the first half of this campaign, especially when Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were out for extended spells. But no mistaking Orlando's pace late in the season, notably during a recent stretch of winning nine of eleven that included last Tuesday's 119-112 win over the Hawks. Note that all four meetings during the regular season landed above this 216.5 for Tuesday night at Kia Center. Play Hawks-Magic Over

The Magic had their awful first half but got back to their defensive prowess in the final two months. Paolo Banchero got back to his MVP form and they play with extreme confidence at home. Orlando has covered 4 of final 6 at home and 11-4 ATS in final 15 games before Sunday, which was an exhibition with nothing on the line. In the first 3 meetings between these teams Dyson Daniels was a -4.3 and Trae Young made 26.7% of his threes. Prior to Sunday's exhibition win, the Hawks had dropped 4 of the last 5 to playoff teams. The Magic will slow this game down and win the physical battles.