This is another pick I included in my daily promo parlay, and it's my top ATS pick of this NBA slate. Memphis is clearly the better team here, despite some recent struggles. This is the spot where I expect Ja Morant to snap out of his mini shooting slump, and have a big night. I have Memphis projected to win by 6 here.

DraftKings. Would bet down to under 29.5. Paolo Banchero is coming off a massive 36-point 5-assist outing against the Hawks last night. With the quick turnaround today, and going up against one of the elite defenders in the NBA (Jaren Jackson Jr.), I’ll be fading Banchero tonight. He’s under this line in 15/23 games this season, including 2/2 on back to backs. Ironically, one of those back to backs was also against Memphis, who held him to 16 points and 3 assists in 37 minutes back in October.

Was that the buy signal we have been waiting for from the Magic last night in Atlanta? Spotting the Hawks an early lead, Orlando roared back for a 114-108 win behind 36 points from Paolo Banchero. Along with Franz Wagner, the pair combined for 61 points, and after an injury-plagued campaign, the Magic have now won two straight and three of four, and starting to play like they did in November, when they went on a 12-1 run. Meanwhile, a quick start for Memphis fizzled last night at Indiana when the Griz allowed the Pacers to score a whopping 50 points in the 2nd Q of Indiana's 127-113 win. Might the recent Ja Morant offseason trade rumors become a distraction? Play Magic

The Grizzlies have lost three of their last four games but to be fair they were three really good teams such as the Thunder, Clippers, and Pacers. The problem with the Pacers' loss is it was last night. Will they be ready for another fight the next night against the Magic? The Magic played last night in Atlanta. The key is not getting blasted like they did in the second quarter against the Pacers last night where they lost 50-26. Ja Morant shooting 4 of 15 should be fixed tonight. The Pacers shot 51%, Grizzlies 41%. The Magic rank 28th in the NBA shooting 44% while the Grizzlies are top five in both offensive and defensive shooting. Memphis wins.

You can get this as low as 25.5 at some books, 26.5 at others and then this number at a couple. When I get a two-point difference, I usually get interested and then try to decide on the low or high end. Most models have Franz Wagner around 24 points against the Grizzlies. He had 23 in the first meeting.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is having another strong season and after Victor Wembenyama was lost of the season is suddenly the front runner to win his 2nd DPOY award. While JJJ is having a terrific season this is a big number for him considering Memphis is basically at full strength and deploys a deep rotation. Furthermore this is a tough matchup against an Orlando team that ranks 2nd in total defense, in addition to playing at the slowest pace in the league.

We place this wager as the Grizz are coming back from a sluggish first half and taking it to the Pacers. It's easy to write off Memphis without the star power of other top teams but we expect them to keep covering. They are 7-2 ATS with no rest this season. Their crazy pace is a problem for opponents even on back to back. They are 11-2 ATS with a rest disadvantage. And they entered Thursday 16-4 ATS vs the East. Magic were starting to get themselves together a little before the break but they have really struggled and are 7-15-1 ATS as a dog, 2-4-1 ATS as home dog and 5-13-1 ATS vs the West. Not buying Orlando being able to keep up scoring.