This has to be the turnaround game for Aaron Nesmith. He only put up a 9 PRA in Game 2, but does average 20.9 against the Knicks on the season. In Round 1 he showed that he bounced back from poor games (10 PRA turned to 19, 14 turned to 23.) He had plenty of open missed shots in Game 2, and i expect him to remain an after thought for the Knicks defense. I also expect the entire Pacers squad to show more effort on the boards as they have been out-rebounded by double digits this series.

Donte DiVincenzo has logged 43 minutes, or more, in the three straight. He’ll see 40+ minutes, now with OG Anunoby out for the next two games most likely. Indiana has allowed the 6th most points to shooting guards and DiVincenzo had scored 21, or more, points in three out of the five meetings against the Pacers. This season, when playing 40+ minutes, he’s had 21 points, or more, in 10 of his last 13 games.

This number seems a little inflated. However, New York is shorthanded. Josh Hart has played 41 minutes, or more, in every game this postseason. Now, with OG Anunoby out, he definitely isn’t coming out, unless he’s in foul trouble. With his PRA set at 36, Hart has gone over that number in five out of the eight playoff games thus far. Also, when he’s played 44 minutes, or more, his PRA has gone over 36 in five of the last six games.

One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Knicks being without OG Anunoby figures to be Pascal Siakam. He should be able to move more freely off the dribble, and use his length to score. Siakam has scored below twenty points in six straight postseason games. With the Pacers down two games to the Knicks look for Siakam to leave it all on the floor.

I'm taking it over. The Pacers are going to have a field day in front of the home crowd. Fast pace. It will be a very spirited game, but it doesn't mean the Pacers win. This total is about 15 points too low. The Knicks will score even if Brunson doesn't play, and chances of winning improve if he does play. Right now it's just the over.

The wagering public seems to be anticipating an Indiana recovery, with some slight upward pressure in a number that opened at 7 and has crept upwards slightly. Dangerous, maybe, as the Knicks have exhibited a lot of never-say-die in these playoffs, and nearly had three 30-point scorers (Brunson-DiVincenzo-Anunoby) in the wild win at MSG on Wednesday. But the one game in the first round when NY lost contact was Game 3 at Philly, when the Sixers came in trailing the series 2--0, and the Pacers took care of the Bucks in all three at Indy in the first round. Meanwhile, Anunoby likely misses tonight. Tyrese Haliburton's recovery to 34 points after a sluggish Game 1 was good news for Rick Carlisle. Play Pacers

Interestingly, the oddsmakers have only slightly budged the "total" in this series after a pair of easy "overs" in Games 1 & 2. The latter saw an early low-220s "total" not stick as it was bet down to the high 2-teens, landing very close to the Game 1 number, though the public seems comfy with the low 220s posted for tonight. So are we because we look "over" again, as the pace remains brisk as during the regular season when these two faced. The Knicks had a triumvirate of players (Brunson-DiVincenzo-Anoboby, the latter likely out tonight) just miss 30 points on Wednesday, while Tyrese Haliburton recovered with 34 for Indiana. NY also enters on a 17-3 "over" run. Play Knicks-Pacers "Over"

TJ McConnell has been excellent in this series and is coming off 10 point, 12 assist performance, where the veteran PG racked up double digit assists in the first half. Pacer fans and NBA fans alike are wondering why McConnell didn't close the game considering how effective he was but it simply is hard to play him and Tyrese Haliburton simultaneously considering theyre both ball dominant. TJ also doesn't offer much of a threat from the perimeter and isn't nearly as effective if he isn't running the offense. He also greatly benefits from coming off the bench and facing the opponents second unit, which is why I don't see his minutes suddenly rising as they would come at the expense of Tyrese Haliburton.

No OG means freed up Siakam. He should thrive

Dang it. Thought I could beat the books a little for Game 3 but in the 30 minutes it took to shower, etc., for the night ... I waited a bit too long as a line that opened as low as -180 is already rising and rising. I'm assuming Jalen Brunson will play since he returned to tonight's game, but if OG Anunoby can't after leaving with a hamstring injury, that's huge. Tom Thibodeau probably tries to sign 39-year-old Luol Deng and then play him 39 minutes on Friday -- sort of the basketball version of shooting your age in golf. Seriously, though, the Knicks could be comically thin and up 2-0 maybe they simply don't even chance it with OG.

If they had set this at 228.5 I would have at least had a bit of pause before I rode the over. At this number, I am pouncing. We rode Pacers over through the entire last series as well as they one and they keep cashing. They play no D and they play at a frenetic pace and take a million shots. The Knicks are without a premier rim defender and showed from the 2nd quarter of Game 1 they are willing to run with IND. At home, Pacers game totals go way up. Both teams are 11-2 to the over in their last 13. Both teams can get to 120 vs the other without playing an A game offensively

The injuries are mounting for the Knicks and there's a good chance they are very short-handed against the Pacers on Friday. The Pacers have played really good basketball only to get outplayed late in each game, but now they're at home and I think some of the clutch sharp shooting regresses for the Knicks. The officials likely give Carlisle and company a kinder whistle in Indiana and I think they pulll away in this one. Get this line early before it climbs.