We're looking too closely at Evan Mobley's lower home average here. He's hit three unders in his last five, but before that was 6-1 to the over. Other PFs who average around the same amount of points as Mobley are averaging 17 points at home verse Orlando, 4-1 to this over with a 20 point average. The Sportsline Model makes the number 17. I'd even play it at 14.5 for a better price.

You may not realize it by looking at Evan Mobley's counting stats but the former 3rd overall pick had a very good season and came on especially strong down the stretch. Mobley is a terrific two way player and his offensively hes been much more efficient, despite playing on a team with an unusual roster construction. This number is simply too low for Mobley who should play upwards of 35+ minutes. Mobley has scored at least 14+ points in five consecutive games against the Magic.

What a great step forward for the Magic this season and they might eventually make some noise in the East if they can upgrade the backcourt. But the NBA has taught us that young teams new to the playoffs generally have to learn to win in them and often go out in a sweep. Thus, very tough to see Orlando winning in Cleveland for that reason. The Magic lost their final four regular-season road games, including at awful Charlotte.