The Mavericks haven’t been great at home this season, where they are just 14-19 ATS. Not only did they fail to cover the spread in their last two home games, but they lost outright to the 76ers and Pacers. The Heat have won seven of their last eight games with five of those victories coming on the road. Overall, they are 18-11-2 ATS on the road this season. Look for them to cover again, and possibly even win outright.

Good spot to buy low on Bam Adebayo at plus money. Bam has hit four straight unders the last four games, but he hasn't hit five straight unders since the beginning of the season. Kevin Love is out for Miami and Dallas does not pose as a large defensive threat as of late, two factors that should allow for more assist opportunities. His average on the season is up to 4 from 3.3 a year ago. The Sportsline Model makes the number 4.

The Mavericks have given up 120 or more points in six straight games, with perimeter defense being a big problem. So this matchup sets up well for Duncan Robinson, who continues to start in place of the injured Tyler Herro. Robinson has been much more effective as a starter. He shoots 48.7 percent from the field, 45.6 percent from beyond the arc, while averaging 16.3 points in 32.6 minutes per game as a starter. He has played at least 34 minutes in five straight games. Look for Robinson to score at least 15 points Thursday.

Luka Doncic has been an absolute tear recently and has racked up four consecutive triple doubles and has eclipsed this line in five straight games, but I do not believe his current production or playing time is sustainable. Luka is taking nearly 27 field goal attempts per game over his last five games and that is even an abnormally high number for him. Luka has also logged over 40 minutes in three of his last five games which is also more than his season average of 37.8 minutes per game. Ultimately the Mavs need to find a way to reduce his playing time (even if it is only a few minutes). Miami is a tough matchup and will try to limit possessions.

The Heat will be without three key players again in this one including Tyler Herro, so Butler will do plenty of dishing and ball movement. Dallas is one of the worst teams in the NBA right now yielding assists and Butler is also pretty intent on scoring over 20 points these days. He should be able to drive on a Dallas team lacking interior defensive presence and is over this in 4 of the last 5 games, taking on more with others out. I like this match-up for him.

Jimmy Butler continues to look to move the ball, be smart about exerting his energy and then take games over with his offense late. The way he's playing he can come out of the first quarter with 5 assists. Butler is averaging 7.3 assist/G his last 10 and is over this in 6 of the last 7 games. The Heat are shooting well from range these days, which ups his odds of going way over this. Dallas allows 28 assists/G, 7th most in the NBA, and 30 AST/G the last 10 games, 3rd most.