Half unit because I trust the Heat very little on the road but the Hornets are basically down to LaMelo Ball and their JV due to injury. I shoulda anticipated all those guys ruled out and taken this earlier under -200.

I put very little stock into historical trends, especially pertaining to player props but the Miami Heat have guarded LaMelo Ball very well since Ball entered the league. LaMelo has faced Miami 9x and never has eclipsed 19 points with shooting splits of 35/25/78% and averaging just 14.6 PPG. It looks like the Hornets may be without multiple starters, however if that is the case it increases the possibility of a potential blowout. Miami is extremely tough on opposing PGs, play at a very slow pace, and have multiple quality defenders they will utilize against LaMelo.

Ball is a very good player; respect. But he is not a very good player in this matchup. He consistently underachieves v the Heat. I’ll play the “ horses for courses” philosophy and ride under.

The Heat didn’t enter the season with much depth. They are really being tested right now with Tyler Herro (ankle) and Caleb Martin (knee) out. With both players sidelined the last two games, Jaime Jaquez Jr. logged a total of 70 minutes. That helped him score 20 and 11 points, respectively. Going back even further, he has scored at least nine points in five straight games. The Hornets have played at the fourth-fastest pace and have the worst defensive rating in the league, so look for Jaquez to hit this over.

The surprise over team in the league has been the Hornets, who have continued to play uptempo even minus G Terry Rozier, expected to miss a fifth straight game tonight vs. the Heat. But Charlotte displaying a sharper edge nonetheless with LaMelo Ball and five other DD scorers including Bama rookie F Brandon Miller. Note overs in seven straight for the Hornets, while Miami has cleared 222 in the last two games of this current road trip. Play Heat-Hornets Over