Tatum is my value choice to win mvp (+800) but his numbers of 43 points/reb/assists per game here are inflated by a few crazy totals. It’s the difference between median v mean, Median is more of an accurate indication. Roll with this.

This line here is based off a skewed season average. While Jayson Tatum does average 42.5 PRA this season, it included two home games where they averaged 137 PPG. They've had plenty of blow out wins so far this season and that will not be the case tonight, therefore his line should be lower. The defensive efforts from Philly this season have looked solid while the Celtics are not playing as well on the road as they are at home. Our model makes this number closer to 36.

Jayson Tatum is playing like a bona fide MVP through the first few weeks of the NBA season. The Celtics look dominant after upgrading their roster by adding two All-Stars in Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to an already loaded roster. While it's never pleasant fading a player the caliber of Tatum, the 76ers have defended him well and possess the length and personnel to make life difficult on the superstar. I don't care much about historical trends however its worth noting that Tatum has faced the 76ers 21 times over his career and has failed to score 30 points in 20 of those matchups. Look for the Sixers to make slowing down Tatum the focal point of their defensive game plan.

Kristaps Porzingis has been performing consistently well, with over 16.5 points scored in eight of his last ten games since last season. In the four games he played against the Philadelphia 76ers, Porzingis maintained an average of 23.8 points. According to my model, if Porzingis plays for at least 30 minutes, about his season average, he is projected to score 21.5 points.