Nothing complicated here. Anthony Davis has scored fewer points at home this season than he does on the road. In fact, he scores 4.7 fewer points at home than he does on the road, and that's been the case in the postseason too. In 38 games at home, Davis has only gone over 25.5 points 13 times this year, and he's only scored 25 points or more in one home game this postseason (including the play-in).

The Nuggets have been worse on the road all season, and Nikola Jokic hasn't been as productive on the road, either. While his points per game splits are the same, Jokic averaged 2.5 fewer rebounds and 2.6 fewer assists per game on the road. In the playoffs, he's averaging 22.2 rebounds and assists per game on the road, and has gone over this total in only one of the five games.

This is a must win game for Los Angeles. The Lakers play much better defense at home, ranking 3rd in defensive rating at 108.4. Denver is 7-6 ATS this playoffs, while the Lakers have the second-best ATS record, 10-4. The Nuggets were only 21-25 ATS on the road during the regular season.

The Nuggets took care of business at home, winning the first two games of this series. However, they haven’t been nearly as good on the road. They are just 21-25 there ATS, while the Lakers are 27-18-3 ATS at home. Including the play-in tournament, the Lakers are 7-0 at home with six of their wins coming by at least six points. I expect them to get their first win of the series and cover along the way.

The Lakers are down 0-2, but Anthony Davis has been excellent. He has especially stood out on the defensive end. He had three steals and two blocks in Game 1, then followed that up with four blocks and one steal in Game 2. During the playoffs, he has at least four combined steals and blocks in 11 of 14 games. I’m staying on this trend.

Bruce Brown is an exceptional role player capable of contributing in a variety of ways. It is should come as little surprise that Nuggets head coach Mike Malone is giving Brown some additional playing time. Brown just logged 37 minutes in game 2 when his previous playoff high was 31 minutes. I think Brown ends up playing closer to 25-30 minutes tonight and this is line is a tall order.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 35 PPG on the road in the postseason while eclipsing this line in 4 consecutive road games. Jokic has also scored at least 30+ points in every Nuggets playoff loss and considering the Lakers are 6 point favorites tonight, I believe Jokic will be look to score more than usual.

The Lakers are down 2-0 but will use the home-court energy to get back into the series. The Nuggets have always been a far better team at home than on the road, and this year is no exception. Denver is 29-19-1 ATS at home, while outscoring opponents by 10 points per game, but is 20-25 ATS away, while being outscored by two points per game.

Thought I was reading this price wrong as I'm surprised the Over is an underdog. Reaves is averaging nearly 21 ppg in his past five and has made at least three three-pointers in each of those -- five in each of the first two in this series. Now he goes back to his own gym, where he has much better shooting splits on the year, and we get Over 2.5 at +129? Fine by me.

At first glance this feels like a steal with the top seed getting substantial points. But the Lakers, humbled by their avoidable miscues in Denver, should respond with extreme focus at Crypto.com Arena. LA is 6-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs, including two blowouts of the Warriors, a massacre of Memphis and another 10-point win over the Grizzlies. The Nuggets have been a much worse defensive team on the road. Hopefully, LA coach Darvin Ham realizes he must severaly cut the playing time of D'Angelo Russell (series-worst minus-41 in 59 minutes).