After Vincent’s game one and game two twenty point outbursts, he simmered down in a blowout game three victory over the Knicks. Game three’s single digit performance was just the second time this postseason Vincent has failed to score double digits. Tail his under again as Vincent has had issues with fouls and turnovers.

The New York Knicks are lucky they are not down three games to nothing against the Miami Heat. They needed to rally in game two against an undermanned Heat team to win. Look for game three’s lackluster effort to finally be the wake up call the Knicks need. This will be a much more competitive game. Grab the points.

Jalen Brunson has been phenomenal in his debut season with the Knicks. Brunson is averaging a career best 24 PPG on 49/41/83 which is exceptional efficiency. His game is predicated on a combination of footwork, a crafty handle, sky high B-Ball IQ, and grown man strength. He is a scorer in the half court and I don't think I've seen Brunson take a bad shot this season. He possesses an arsenal of different floaters, post up moves, off balance shots, different combination of finishes that make him a very effective scorer near the rim. He has expanded his range and become an above average three point shooter as well. The Knicks will need their star guard to carry them to a victory in game 4 and I expect him to play upwards of 40+ minutes.

It's a must-win for the Knicks tonight because there's simply no way they're coming back from down 3-1, even if two of the final three games are at home. Will they win? I have no idea. I'm not optimistic, particularly now that they'll be without Immanuel Quickley, and how that will impact the second unit's offensive ceiling. However, one of the effects of that injury could be more minutes for R.J. Barrett, and more possessions with the ball in his hands. Barrett had 10 assists in the first two games before finishing with only one in Game 3, but that was more about New York's lack of shot-making than R.J.'s lack of distribution.

Jalen Brunson is in prime position for a big night. With Immanuel Quickley out, Brunson will not get much rest tonight. This is a must-win bounce back situation for the Knicks, and Brunson will be leading the fight. The guard has already surpassed this prop in 2 of the 3 games this series, and now he will have more minutes to get it done. Nobody could shoot on either side of the ball in Game 3. I am confident a better shooting performance will carry this prop. Brunson has also been sneaky on the boards, hitting his rebounds over in his last 7 games. Expect production from him all over the court tonight.

The Knicks couldn't make a shot in Game 3, and they couldn't keep Jimmy Butler off the foul line. But look for New York to bounce back tonight behind a huge performance from Jalen Brunson. Take the points.

If Julius Randle wants to show up, he will. There is no reason Randle shouldn't be able to hit double-digit boards in a must-win bounce back situation. Although we are working with a small sample size, the center is averaging 13 rebounds in the series. Our Sims have him at 9.4, but I feel confident he will hit double-digits with the 30 plus minutes he should be playing.

Julius Randle has appeared in 12 career playoff games and has been held under 24 points in 11 of those appearances. He is averaging 16.4 PPG with shooting splits of 32%/27%/77%. Not good. There are also signs that Randle is beginning to fall out of favor with coach Tom Thibodeau. Randle is also really having a hard time scoring whenever Bam Adebayo is on the court. While I expect Randle to shoot better than he did in game 3, I still think 24 points is a tall order for him and I expect New Yorks guards to be more aggressive as well (more on that later..).

I'm trusting that Jimmy Butler's ankle will be good to go for Game 4 and that the Miami Heat defensive and offensive chemistry will continue to outclass the Knicks. It's certainly a must win game for New York, but they simply can't seem to out-maneuver the Heat who are managing to do more with less from a talent standpoint. The Knicks will also be dealing with the likely loss of Immanuel Quickley and I think it will be difficult for the second team to find the right fit on the road. The Knicks will be more competitive tonight, but they still fail to cover this one.

The first two games of this series were close, but Game 3 was a laugher. The Heat dominated at home, beating the Knicks by 19 points. They received a huge boost from the return of Jimmy Butler, who scored 28 points across 36 minutes. If Butler didn’t miss Game 2, the Heat might have been going for the sweep in Game 4. The Knicks will be desperate to knot things up at 2-2 with the series shifting back to New York for Game 5, so this should be closer than Game 3 played out. However, I still like the Heat to win, so I’m willing to pay the juice with them on the moneyline.

Outside of Bam Adebayo, the Heat don’t exactly have a ton of size up front. Kevin Love operates a lot on the perimeter, and they roll with a lot of small lineups. That has helped Josh Hart, who is an excellent rebounder, to grab at least eight boards in all three games of this series. He has a double-double in both of the last two games, finishing with at least 25 combined points and rebounds both times. Expect him to play a ton with the Knicks trying to even up this series, giving him a favorable opportunity to reach this over.