Golden State has won eight straight at home and will have Draymond Green in the lineup after missing the past few. Portland is without Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic. Yeah, Damian Lillard can win this by himself, and he's set at an absurd O/U 37.5 points tonight (see my pick on that), but he generally has played a bit worse on the road this year. Portland averages about 10 points fewer away.

The Warriors are set to receive a boost for this game with Draymond Green (knee) listed as probable. They won both of the last two games despite him being out, both of which were played at home. They are now 24-7 at home this season, compared to 7-23 on the road. The Trail Blazers have also struggled on the road, recording a 12-17 record away from Portland. I really like the Warriors to win this game, but I worry about them covering with Damian Lillard so hot right now. I’ll plug my nose and pay the juice on the Warriors moneyline.

Wow, am I dreaming? 37.5 freaking points? Lillard is awesome and capable of a 37-point half, but I'll go under that for any player. Note that his scoring average is four points fewer on the road. Yeah, he used to get fired up visiting the Warriors when they were in his hometown of Oakland. Not sure now that they are in San Francisco. Don't care. 37.5 is still crazy.