Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving seem poised to fill it up, but I'm not confident that Cleveland can keep up on offense at the Barclays Center without its starting center. Cleveland is averaging just 106 points per games in road games (12) without Jarrett Allen. The Cavs scored 105 points or less in seven of those contests. The total has also fallen short of 226 in all three of Cleveland's losses to Brooklyn this year. I expect this game's slower, playoff pace to keep the score on the lower end down the stretch.

Cleveland's defense isn't anywhere near the same without Allen and Brooklyn can't stop anyone, which is why it needs Ben Simmons so badly if it intends to make a deep run. The Cavs ended the season on a high offensive note vs. Milwaukee and, well, we know Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are going to get buckets.

Entering the playoffs, one would not normally have a recent matchup and identical point spread off of which to work. The opening line of this play-in game was exactly the same as the one for their contest last Friday. The Nets dominated the first and fourth quarters of that game by outscoring the Cavaliers by 15 and 16 points, respectively. Recency bias, combined with Brooklyn's star power, has pushed this spread up just a bit too much. Play the underdog Cavaliers.

The Nets turned on the go switch in their last four games, winning each by eight points or more. One of those was a 118-107 home win against the Cavs with the same spread as Tuesday's. The Cavaliers have lost eight of their last 11 and have gone 3-9 ATS in their last 12. The Cavs don’t have that spring in their step as they did in the first half of the season, while the Nets are getting better and have tons to prove. Brooklyn gets the cover.

Still no Ben Simmons for the Nets and probably no Jarrett Allen for the Cavs -- maybe Allen's "doubtful" status is a smokescreen? Regardless, I think this spread is too high. Do I expect the Nets to win? Sure. But the Cavs are a vastly better defensive team than the Nets with Evan Mobley back (and even more so if Allen can get out there even for 15 game minutes). Brooklyn was the second-worst ATS team in the NBA during the regular season. I'm also not sure how healthy Seth Curry (ankle soreness) will be, although he'll play. Goran Dragic (health protocols) is in question for Brooklyn.

We just saw these two teams play each other less than a week ago, a game that was also played in Brooklyn. The Nets won by 11 points, with Kevin Durant scoring 36 points along the way. Darius Garland was also excellent for the Cavaliers, scoring 31 points on 12-for-24 shooting from the field. It hasn’t been an ideal season for the Nets, but they made the play-in tournament, have Kyrie Irving available for all of their games again, and still have championship aspirations. I think they win this game, but don’t be surprised if the Cavaliers cover this big number. Since Irving was able to play in Brooklyn again, the Nets have gone just 1-5 ATS at home.