The home team is 0-4 SU in this series yet the Clippers are giving 7.5 points? Hmm. Yes, L.A. seems to have exploited a Dallas weakness by going to a smaller lineup, but I'm sure Mavs coach Rick Carlisle will have some sort of answer here. Also, the extra day off should work wonders on the injured neck of Luka Doncic. Dallas was much better on the road ATS this season than at home and is 4-0 ATS in its past four as a road dog. L.A. is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home.

The Clippers have quickly flipped the script to even their series against the Dallas Mavericks. Their dominance in Games 3 and 4 presents caution to latch on ATS-wise for Game 5. Dallas has performed better on the road as the Mavericks won in the regular season and the first two games of the series in Los Angeles. Take the underdog.

Game 5 as this Western Conference series shifts to L.A. with the home team yet to win in the series. My model gives the Mavericks a 55 percent chance of covering as 7-point underdogs, but the better wager is on the total with 65 percent of simulations landing Over 217 points. The Over is 7-1 in Dallas' past eight road games.