The Knicks are coming off three straight signature grinders that included a pair of tight losses to the 76ers and a one-point win over the Magic. The league's top defensive team has held its opponents to 104 or fewer points in each of its last four wins. Conversely, Washington has easily the NBA's worst scoring defense at 120 points per contest but are seventh in the league in scoring at 115 per game. Look for New York to willingly adjust to Washington's preferred quick tempo and the result will send this one Over the total.

Mitchell Robinson and Immanuel Quickley are back, and Derrick Rose has been upgraded to questionable. The added depth really helps the Knicks in this matchup with the Wizards without Davis Bertans. My simulations make the Knicks -4.3 home favorites thanks to their top five defensive rating. Lay it.

The hot streak the Wizards were on for a while is long gone as they have dropped eight of 10 and are playing horrible defense -- the one thing the Knicks do well. Washington also will be without fourth-leading scorer Davis Bertans (10.8 ppg) due to injury. New York is expected to get back Derrick Rose, although his minutes will be limited out of COVID protocols, and both Immanuel Quickley and Mitchell Robinson are probable. That should be enough for a close win as long as Bradley Beal doesn't go nuts.

My model says the Knicks cover in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value at this number. New York has performed much better at home than on the road this season, going 12-8 while nearly posting a fifth straight win in its building before falling to Philadelphia by one point in overtime on Sunday. The Wizards have dropped three straight on the road and suffered an 18-point loss against the Knicks at home last month. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite. Expect that record to improve on Tuesday.