The home team has been favored in each of the last five meetings, and it's gone 4-1 ATS in those five meetings. On the season Portland is 26-16-1 ATS at home and 34-19-1 ATS as a favorite, but it's only 21-20 ATS on the road, and 13-17 ATS as an underdog. As an underdog on the road, the Blazers are 9-15 ATS. Furthermore, the Thunder have played Portland at home twice this season, and they won both games by nine points.

This point spread reflects a lot of people thinking that the Thunder, down 2-0, will play as if their hair is on fire at home against the Trail Blazers. I get that. But the line has swung too high in the other direction. After being swept by Oklahoma City during the regular season, Portland has thoroughly outplayed the Thunder in the first two games of the series. And Paul George may be saying publicly that his shoulder is fine, but his shooting in the series (6-of-22 on 3-pointers) says otherwise. Oklahoma City may win, but I like the Blazers to cover.

The Thunder have had plenty of time to re-focus after their miserable performances in Portland. They're 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on two days' rest. Playing at home with their season on the line, look for OKC's desperation to translate to a solid win. Lay it.