The Nationals have lost their last five games, and they've stayed under the total in four of them to move down to the fourth-best over team in baseball, hitting the over 56.5% of the time. The Nationals may have surrendered their chances for the playoffs this year by making a pair of trades the last 2 weeks, the most notable being Luis Garcia Jr to the Yankees on Sunday. But I think the Nationals lineup thrives against Aaron Nola, who the Phillies have lost his last six starts. Andrew Alvarez will also allow a few runs to the Phillies. It's a good pitching mix for the over.

The Nationals have lost five straight and just traded one of their top hitters in Luis Garcia Jr. Still, they’ve hit RHPs to an .830 OPS the last couple weeks. Aaron Nola had one of his better outings last time out vs. the Marlins, allowing one run over 5.2 innings. He still took the loss, and now hasn’t won a game since May. He also owns a 6.40 home ERA on the season. It sounds like a bullpen game for the Nationals, which normally I’m not fond of backing. But Washington’s rested pen has a 2.91 ERA the last 15 days. The Phillies have hit left-handers hard lately, but not right-handers. The Nats can take advantage. Nice plus odds.

Aaron Nola faces off with a Nationals lineup that's starting to look a bit depleted with some of these trades, losing Luis Garcia and Curtis Mead in recent weeks. Still, I like the Nationals team total over 3.5 here, and wouldn't mind taking over 4.5 runs at plus odds, as I have them projecting for just above five runs here. The Philly bullpen is in great shape after not stretching any of their relievers for back to back work over the weekend, and their high leverage guys are all well rested. Nola hasn't pitched great either so I like betting against him with a lineup still lefty heavy, with it being his side that also has more walks.

This is shaping up as a really nice spot to fade Aaron Nola who has largely struggled from the mound this season. Nola will face a familiar opponent in the Washing Nationals who have been hitting extremely well and rank 4th in wOBA against right handed pitchers this season, in addition to being the top offense in the MLB over the last 30 days. Nola has failed to eclipse 17.5 outs in 9 of his last 11 appearances.

Philly pitcher Aaron Nola is having a very down season, but this is about the Nationals -- who will use a bullpen game Monday -- telling their locker room we aren't pushing for the playoffs on Sunday by trading infielder Luis Garcia to the Yankees. Garcia is having a huge year, leading the National League in slugging percentage (.560) and batting .283 with 23 home runs, 76 RBI and an .873 OPS. Obviously significantly weakens a Washington lineup that not long ago traded another infielder having a career year in Curtis Mead. Maybe CJ Abrams goes Monday, and this number would really be value. As it is, Washington has lost five straight. The Phils will only be adding ahead of the deadline.