Yordan Alvarez facing off with Grayson Rodriguez is quite the mismatch, at least with each in their current form. Alvarez is making an MVP push, producing a near 1.100 OPS against both right and left handers, while Rodriguez is allowing a 97+ mph average exit velocity to lefties on his fastball. He's thrown that pitch over 55% of the time, allowing three home runs on 20 batted balls. Whether he can grab a couple of hits or an extra base hit, the over 1.5 Total Bases makes for a solid bet in this matchup. Also bet the 1+ walk in case we lose an at bat to a walk, and Rodriguez has had walk issues.

Grayson Rodriguez missed nearly two years with injuries before returning in mid-May. Only one of his four starts has gone well. He's giving up a 50 percent hard-hit rate with an expected slugging percentage of .567. Houston's Spencer Arrighetti struggled last time out vs. the Pirates, but before that he had gone six straight starts allowing one or zero runs. Look for Houston, coming off a shutout loss Sunday, to lead after five.

Caesar’s. Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t looked great since returning to the big leagues for his first time since 2024. The righty has only been able to muster a 9.50 ERA (7.07 xERA), while struggling mightily with his control (12.8% walk rate). He’ll face the Astros, who have heated up at the plate of late (.785 OPS and a 119 wRC+ versus righties over the last week). Rodriguez, who has been pummeled the third time through the order (6/13 with a homerun and double allowed), should be on a short leash given his workload limitations this season. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.

Too good of a price to pass up with Spencer Arrighetti up against Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been pretty terrible in four starts this year with an ERA over 9 and the advanced metrics aren't much better. There's an argument that the Arighetti regression is underway after getting touched up by the Pirates last time out, but the pitching advantage remains clear here. The Angels bats are heating up and the Astros had to travel which may be keeping this price way more reasonable than what it should be.

Spencer Arrighetti has been brilliant this season, but had his first hiccup last week against the Pirates, when he gave up four runs in four innings. The Astros won that game 11-9. In his previous eight starts, he allowed two runs or fewer, with seven of them being one run or less. This season, in nine starts, he's 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 51 innings. He's only allowed three home runs all season, and I think he's a steal on Monday against the Angels. Jose Altuve is back at second base for the Astros, and they showed immediate improvement on Friday and Saturday against the A's. Arrighetti should be -150 in this spot, and he's only -118. Astros win.