George Kirby just allowed eight runs in four innings in game three. Seattle may be the better overall team but their pitching has let them down since going up 2-0. The Blue Jays are 57-29 at home on the year and have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. Their bats are hotter and have multiple players hitting over .300 this series. Shane Bieber held Seattle to only two runs last Wednesday in six innings of work and Max Scherzer is also available tonight in a hostile environment to send their team to the World Series.

I've been rooting for the Seattle Mariners the entire season, but I feel it's come to an end in Game 7 Monday night. I bet with money, not feelings. After Seattle won the first two games in Toronto, the Blue Jays have come alive with two wins in Seattle and a win on Sunday night at home. They won at home like they have all year, winning 54 games and losing only 27 in the regular season. It's a game seven at home. Also, they go over more times than anybody in baseball, including their last five games. I don't care about who starts the game because no pitcher on either side is hot. Blue Jays to win, lean to the over.

At this price, I'm on the Mariners to win game seven. George Kirby performed poorly against this lineup last time, but I don't expect they stick with him long if trouble arises. It will be all hands on deck from the Seattle bullpen and Toronto is in the same spot behind Shane Bieber. The Jays used their closer for 35 pitches (2 innings) last night so we'll see how things break out late in the game but in the end, I trust the M's bullpen more. Bieber was on the ropes in the 1st inning last time and pitching with a big lead helped him a ton. He allowed hard contact but avoided too much damage; it'll be tough to get lucky again.

One gets the feeling the Mariners have let their chance to close out this series slip past. A closer look at the last four games suggests Toronto could have won all of those and closed out the series last night, outscoring Seattle 27-8 in the three wins, and leading into the bottom of the 8th in Game 5 before Brendon Little and Seranthony Dominguez imploded. Shane Bieber also looks a better option the mound for the decider, having gone a solid 6 innings in Game 3, while the Mariners' George Kirby was routed, allowing 8 runs in 4 just IP. Vladdy Jr and his hot bat (six playoff homers) also spell trouble for Seattle pitchers on Monday. Play Jays on ML

Recency bias can be hard to overlook in a crucial game seven to decide who goes to the World Series. The Toronto Blue Jays have captured that with winning three out of the past four games over Seattle. In fact they had game five in their grasp as well before a five run eighth inning from the Mariners. The turn of events was sparked in game three by Shane Bieber but look for this Mariners team to respond as they did in the ALDS against Detroit in game five. Seattle heads to the World Series.

Batten the hatches as it's Game Seven and both managers will go to their bullpens at the first sign of trouble for their pitchers. The trendlines in the ALCS have very much been to the over, landing that way in five straight games, with 59 runs scored across that span. Shane Bieber has only gone six innings a handful of times since being activated in August, and while serviceable on the hill for the Jays hasn't been dominant; his ERA is a so-so 4.06 since the start of September. Meanwhile, Seattle's George Kirby was blasted in Game 3, allowing eight runs (three homers) in just 4 IP. Big bats and runs have been the story of the ALCS! Play Mariners-Jays Over

Certainly not naive to how high-scoring this series has been, but Game 7s usually are low scoring simply as both teams can throw a parade of arms out there with the season on the line and no usage worries. Just quickly looking from the LCS Round (both), five of the past six Game 7s, for example, would land Under this. What's the O/U of total pitchers we may see here? 15.5? Randy Johnson and Dave Stieb may each throw a third of an inning. Man, wish I was a Seattle sports fan on Monday with the M's playing the biggest game in franchise history and the Seahawks home on MNF vs. Houston. Can't remember the last time I had a night like that.

The only game this series to come in under this was Game 1 and the offenses are far more familiar with the opposing pitching staffs at this point. There's plenty of firepower on each side and we don't even need a high-scoring affair, as 6-2 or 5-3 gets us home. M's starter George Kirby was torched in Game 3 and is worse on the road while Blue Jays starter Shane Bieber isn't reliable enough to put zeroes on the board into the middle innings.